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Good Friday Morning! Especially to the brave people of Ukraine, who officially hit the first anniversary of the Russian war in Ukraine. It’s hard to believe that because it feels like it hasn’t been a year, and it’s been much longer than that time. And as I’ll get into below, I suspect there’s much more fighting ahead for them—links to follow.
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[02/20/2023] Progressive Book Editors Destroy Roald Dahl’s Art – Conservative Institute
[02/24/2023] Pete Buttigieg is the worst Transportation Secretary in US history – Conservative Institute
One year later, few answers in Ukraine
We’ve officially hit one year of the Ukraine-Russia war. Leading up to the war, I had downplayed an outright invasion of the entire country. I thought Putin was more intelligent than trying for something impossible. But he did. During the first week of the war, I wrote the following, trying to game out scenarios:
It’s unknown what will happen here. Ukrainians could win independence, Russia could roll, or we end up in the middle. It’s hard to see a version of this, absent Russia up and leaving, which doesn’t end in extensive bloodshed.
I need to point out here the difficulty of taking over Ukraine and the potential bloodshed involved is why I largely downplayed the scenario we’re in right now. It will take blood and money to accomplish what Russia wants. Unless they score a quick victory here, all other plans require time and manpower. If a quick win doesn’t materialize, it turns into a grind.
I believed that even if Russia scored a “quick victory,” they’d struggle to hold Ukraine. It’s a large country, and Russia was not and is not a Great Power. That ended up being right, and we’re in the “grind” scenario of the war.
I didn’t foresee that the US would continue to scale up its military involvement. We’re supplying direct forms of lethal aid responsible for killing Russian soldiers. The United States is pushing more arms and supplies into the conflict than I ever thought possible.
My core thinking around this is still the same a year later: this war is a grind. Even with everyone gearing up for a second surge from Russia, the main problem remains. If Russia were to score a series of victories, they’d struggle to hold the country. Invading is easy, but maintaining it is hard.
Where I’ve changed is that I believe the United States has a responsibility to get an end to this conflict. While weakening Russia is within the United States’ interests, a prolonged battle is not. That only encourages more bloodshed.
A month ago, I wrote a column for the Conservative Institute arguing that the US had failed Ukraine. Last summer, Ukraine scored several victories over Russia that severely weakened the Russian military. Ukraine was so decisive it made me start entertaining the idea of a post-Putin Russia. But we faltered.
There was a moment for a post-Putin Russia that appears to have closed. I wrote at that time, “What contingency plans does the United States have in place to ensure a peaceful transfer of power, the end of the war, and an end to hostilities?” The answer is nothing. Because we’re gearing up for a new round of increased hostilities, and Ukraine is on the defensive.
The moment when America had a ton of leverage over Russia was when it was reeling. Instead, we did very little. There were even jokes about Ukraine invading Russia. The time to broker peace and establish Ukraine as free from Russian interference was then.
Now we’re heading into round two, asking Ukraine to hold up to more Russian advances with strong US military firepower. There’s an apathy in the thinking of DC-centric writers who believes this round will go the same as the last. That may be true, but it’s not the same battle.
Russia is trying to bring Chinese military equipment onto its side. US intelligence suggests that the Chinese are seriously considering this offer. In turn, Biden is considering releasing this intelligence (these reports are the White House testing that theory). The WSJ reports:
In recent weeks, Western nations have picked up on intelligence that Beijing might end its previous self-imposed restraint on weapons supplies to Russia, according to US and European officials, although it appears that China hasn’t yet made a final decision. Beijing had previously been cautious to confine its support to financial assistance and oil purchases, the officials said, but that stance now appears to be shifting, according to the latest intelligence assessments.
“Until now,” a senior Western official said, there “has been a certain amount of ambiguity about what practical help China might give Russia.” The official said that the intelligence the US and its allies have now is “much less ambiguous.”
German media has added some color to this, saying that Chinese companies are talking about selling drones to Russia.
Der Spiegel said Chinese drone manufacturer Xian Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology had said it was prepared to make 100 prototypes of its ZT-180 drone, which the magazine said could carry a 35-50kg warhead.
It said the drone was similar to Iran’s Shaheed-136, with which Russia has launched countless attacks on Ukraine, claiming hundreds of lives and damaging civilian infrastructure.
The magazine also said Bingo had plans to help establish a production site for the drone in Russia, where up to 100 aircraft could be made a month.
We won’t know what weapons China is considering until the White House releases the intelligence. But I believe the White House will release the intelligence. The New York Times did a full spread on how the Biden White House has unclassified and released a shocking amount of intel related to Russia. A year ago, just before the war, I wrote about this technique and that it concerned me to release so much of our intelligence for our enemies to see.
While I have no doubt Russia has long requested China to provide lethal aid, this request is likely different for China. First, you’ll note that the drones Russia has been using are Iranian productions. Last month, Israel conducted a drone air strike against an Iranian weapons factory in Isfahan.
No one has confirmed what this factory produced, but the Guardian called it “a military-industrial complex thought to be a production hub for drones and missiles that have been used across the Middle East and by Russian forces in Ukraine.” Several observers noted that while Israel has directly provided no support to Ukraine (they have complicated relations with Russia), the strikes against Iran likely helped Israel and Ukraine.
If that were a critical drone production facility, Russia would be in dire straits. They must continue their drone range and can’t get them from Iran. Hence the pivot to China, which produces a similar model (in fact, it’s probably the same model because China supplies most of the drones used in the Middle East and Ukraine).
Furthermore, Biden’s decision to shoot down the Chinese spy balloon gives China an excuse to up its support to Russia. They can blame the US for needless escalation and start pushing more aid to Russia. The balloon escalation cuts both ways for both parties.
If China is already supplying the parts to Iran for these drones, then building and shipping the drones directly to Russia wouldn’t escalate much in their minds, even though it does draw them further into the fray of the conflict.
I’ve covered a lot of ground there with how China is stepping closer to the conflict. But in true Chinese fashion, what they say and do is different. They try to keep all options available at all times. Late Thursday (early Friday for China), they released a 12-point plan for peace and de-escalation in Ukraine. You can read it here.
The headline from the WSJ included was: “China made a fresh call for a cease-fire and peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, seeking to cast itself as a neutral mediator in a one-year-old conflict during which Beijing has struggled to maintain its close partnership with Moscow while not further inflaming tensions with the West.”
Their headline was similar to everyone else. There’s a heavy emphasis on China being a “neutral mediator.” But it’s hard to square neutral when Russia and China are friends, even if transactional. And China looking at supplying Russia directly is far from neutral.
In truth, I suspect this is the Chinese way of getting out in front of the White House’s intel of China supplying weapons to Russia. Instead of waiting on the leak, China is putting out a spin now that they’re just trying to achieve peace. That muddies the waters enough for them to move on to whatever they plan.
If China shifts to an open supply of drones, that’s likely not much of an escalation. They’re already doing a large part of that now behind the scenes. But in realistic terms, it’s a big deal because it increases the size of this proxy war. The Ukraine war then becomes a direct proxy war between the West and Russia/China (aka DragonBear).
China dipping its toes in could encourage it to do more. This is bad for Ukrainians, who are asked to take the full brunt of this war and fight the battles on the ground. The time to end this was last summer. Now, we’re looking at a conflict escalating and gaining new parties.
I’m concerned we’ll be here next year talking about even more loss of life with no end in sight. A year later, there are few signs of an endpoint in Ukraine.
Links of the week
A Conspiracy Theory of Connotations: The obsessive policing of language in the name of progress relies on magical thinking. – Oliver Traldi, Quillette
If It Ain’t Woke, Fix It: Biden Wants to Reprogram Artificial Intelligence to ‘Advance Equity’: White House declares war on ‘algorithmic discrimination’ – Andrew Stiles, Washington Free Beacon
Pete Buttigieg Is Not Ready for Primetime: The East Palestine trainwreck exposes a weak Democratic bench – Matthew Continetti, Washington Free Beacon
Luxury Brands Must Prepare For A ‘Richcession’ – Forbes
Fetterman’s Hospitalization Is Reminder Media Lied To Get Him Elected – Jonathan Tobin, Newsweek
John Fetterman and the Democratic Party zombielike lust for power – Charles Hurt, Washington Times
The Fetterman dilemma – Byron York, Washington Examiner
AP Takes Sides in the Fight Against Crisis Pregnancy Centers – RealClearPolitics
Why Students in Kentucky Have Been Praying for 250 Hours: ‘You need to come back to chapel, something is happening.’ On the ground at the Asbury Revival – Olivia Reingold, The FP
Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Thread that explains some of the data discrepancies in the jobs data.
Satire of the week
Pete Buttigieg Under Fire For Using Federal Funds For Gilded Handcar – Onion
Ohio Officials Point At Glass Of Water To Assure East Palestine Residents It Safe To Look At – Onion
Aides Brief Buttigieg On Ohio Disaster Using Wooden Toy Train Set – Babylon Bee
Kamala Disappointed To Learn President In Hospice Is Just Carter – Babylon Bee
Mum’s Perfect Pancakes Take Sting Out Of Fact Man Is 28 And Can’t Afford Own Home – Waterford Whispers
Thanks for reading!