The Outsider Perspective Issue 398 | The Beltway Outsiders

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Good Friday Morning! What a night. What a disaster. Who else wants to watch a Trump vs. Biden golf tournament? Donald Trump’s use of the debate stage to brag about his golf game is possibly the most quintessential Trump moment ever captured. You can’t get more Trump than that. Also, Trump and Biden debating golf scores will become one of the new legendary debate moments of all time.

However, it won’t eclipse the new worst debate performance in American history that Joe Biden just delivered. I have many thoughts. I went live on YouTube immediately after the debate and gave a stream of conscious thoughts there (link below). I also had a pre-debate show up talking about the polls — thank you to all who have liked, subscribed, and shared the videos.

It’s an all-debate issue this week, and my CI column covers it, too, focusing on the media pressure campaign to get Biden out of the race – links to follow.

Quick Hits:

Everything is going to be swamped by the debate this week. But if you read one piece that isn’t about the election, make it Noah Pollak’s report from Los Angeles about the attack on a Jewish synagogue: “The Pogrom on Pico Boulevard: I went to synagogue with my kids to learn a bit about real estate in Israel. Instead, we witnessed a street battle.” In San Francisco, Jewish businesses are getting vandalized by these same racist mobs. Instead of doing anything, police are issuing citations and warnings to Jewish businesses, demanding that they clean up the mess. As my friend Avi Woolf points out, this is precisely what the Nazis did to Jews in the Kristallnacht.

Where you can find me this week

Please subscribe, rate, and review my podcast on iTunes, Spotify, or Google Play — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me in the algorithms. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter.

Trump vs Biden — First Debate Reaction: Biden’s Disastrous Night

The Horse Race Ep. 003: Biden’s Pre-Debate Polling Disaster + Nate Silver’s Model Is LIVE

From #MeToo To Re-Education Camps – Conservative Institute

‘The Squad’ And Jamaal Bowman Get Swept Out For Their Antisemitism – Conservative Institute

It’s Time For Biden To Step Down – Democrats Agree – Conservative Institute

Operation Remove Biden From The Ballot 2.0 Is Here

It’s five-alarm fire time for Democrats. Going into the debate, Joe Biden was sinking badly in the polls. Polling had Trump back with a +1.5-point lead, his largest in three months. The New York Times and Quinnipiac both released polls showing Trump leading by four points.

Biden needed to deliver a knockout blow to Trump. Instead, he did everything but fall on the stage. Biden’s faltering speech, weak voice, mumbling points, and rambling anecdotes left viewers with little idea of his message. Trump even joked at one point, “I don’t even know what he just said.”

Here’s how to sum up what happened. PredictIt is a betting market for the election. After the debate:

Donald Trump’s odds of being President increased from 55 to 58% (+3)
Joe Biden’s odds decreased from 45% to 31% (-14)
Gavin Newsom’s odds increased from 5% to 16% (+11)
Kamala Harris’s odds increased from 4% to 8% (+4)

Those won’t add up to 100% because it’s just 0-100 odds on each person.

Thirty minutes into the debate, the New York Times ran despairing live commentary. They quoted “three veteran Democratic presidential campaign officials,” and the reaction was the same: “This is a disaster.“

Even MSNBC’s header for the debate was: “Biden Stumbles.“ Mediate was slightly more blunt: ‘Looks and Sounds Ancient’: Biden’s Appearance Roasted Minutes Into CNN Debate with Trump.“

CNN’s camera staying on the stage after the debate and showing Biden being led off the stage by Jill Biden very gingerly was another bad look for the President. It was reminiscent of Obama doing the same thing at the recent Jimmy Kimmel event.

Jonathan Karl told viewers on ABC News: “This was a very bad night for Joe Biden. You are starting to hear, privately, discussions among Democrats about whether Biden can go on with this campaign.”

We are no longer in conspiracy theory territory. Back in February, when Biden was blasted by the Robert Hur report, which revealed that Biden wasn’t competent enough to stand trial, I said then that the operation to remove Biden had begun. The White House blocking the audio tapes of Biden’s interviews makes even more sense—they must be a total disaster. Biden was able to deliver a State of the Union performance to beat back those calls from his left.

But we’re back there now. The first Presidential debate is always the most important one. It’s where the most people watch; you get the lasting impressions of both candidates and the rest. Biden’s campaign only agreeing to two debates, this far out from the election makes more sense now. The White House is terrified of more debates and saw this coming a mile away.

At the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter tweeted, “Odds of a September 10 debate are close to zero about now.“

I’m having a hard time disagreeing with that. Anyone’s guess is whether it won’t be Biden or the White House backs out. The odds Biden can get up for a debate performance that erases this one from people’s memories is very low. He can only lose more ground in a debate.

The focus of this debate is squarely on Biden. The Biden campaign’s entire theory of this campaign is that if they could make the race about Trump, they could win. The race is now a referendum on whether Biden can live up to the job. And with a performance that weak, it’s fair to ask the million-dollar question: who is running the White House?

For Trump, this is the best result possible for the debate. He can float into the background, do his thing, and let the White House squirm. He won’t do that. But it won’t matter for now. Biden has to come up with a way to prove he can do the job and explain away what just happened on national television. He can’t do that.

And all the stories we’ve had recently about Biden being “worse“ at the G7 ring more true now. All these “there’s smoke over there“ stories regarding Biden’s health look more like fire. There’s a reason there’s smoke. Biden is fading hard down the stretch of this race, and it’s not getting worse. It’s hard to take the White House seriously that Biden will last the rest of a second term.

How would Biden get replaced? I spelled out everything in February, and the options are this:

There are two ways Biden can leave the ballot:

Have him step aside at the convention; or

Have him resign from the Presidency, let Kamala Harris step into the White House, pick a VP, and run as the new ticket.

But everything hinges on getting Biden off the top of that ballot.

This is still true. Democrats have to convince Biden to step down. They could try to trigger the 25th Amendment (which was trending on X/Twitter during the debate), but I doubt that works either.

Also, I repeat what I’ve said about Democratic politics for a year now. There is no way Gavin Newsom is riding to the rescue. Kamala Harris is the only option. And she polls worse than Biden.

I also wrote this, which is still applicable:

As I said, it’s DEFCON 1 for Democrats. All hands on deck to right the ship, and that will include the media.

Last point: I believe removing Biden will irrevocably rip apart the Democratic coalition for the coming years. Replacing him without a democratic process, when you’ve screeched for the last four years about defending democracy, plums new depths of hypocrisy with the American public. It’ll destroy whatever gains they’ve made because of Trump.

Democrats will push to replace Biden, and the press will help. I would watch the New York Times Editorial Board for cues. If they signal that Biden needs to step down—and I would not be surprised if they do—it will trigger a full push by the entire mainstream media and Democratic establishment to push Biden out.

This was, hands down, the worst debate performance in U.S. presidential history. And I know that because all we have to do is measure it objectively: this is the only time a debate performance has been so bad that the nominating party is scrambling to find a way to replace the nominee.

I expect Biden to sink in the polls by 1-2 points. Donald Trump winning the election is sitting at 70+% odds, and he’s likely to win the popular vote, too.

And just as I’m wrapping up this newsletter, a New York Times column has dropped from Nicholas Kristof. The headline: “President Biden, I’ve Seen Enough: He Must Withdraw From The Race.” I’ll leave you with this from a very prominent Democrat columnist:

We see the world through narratives, and one of the narratives about Biden is that he is too old. His performance reinforced that narrative when he needed to shatter it. Biden, unable to puncture Trump’s repeated falsehoods, allowed a convicted felon to win the debate.

Biden can resolve this by withdrawing from the race. There isn’t time to hold new primaries, but he could throw the choice of a successor to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. The Democratic Party has some prominent figures who I think would be in a good position to defeat Trump in November, among them Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce. And there are many others.

My phone has been blowing up with texts from people saying, as one put it: “Dear God. What are we going to do?“Another, also a fan of Biden, texted: “It’s imperative we change horses.“ But Democrats have been reluctant to say this out loud and undermine Biden. So it will be up to Joe and Jill Biden to make this choice themselves.

This will be a wrenching choice. But, Mr. President, one way you can serve your country in 2024 is by announcing your retirement and calling on delegates to replace you, for that is the safest course for our nation.

Did you notice a big name missing from Mr. Kristof’s replacement list? Kamala Harris, the first female Black Vice President in U.S. history. That’s not an accident.

Ladies and Gentlemen, please put on your seatbelts, place your tray tables in their upright position, put on an oxygen mask for yourself first and your Democratic neighbor second as they’re screaming, and then hold on for dear life. Election turbulence is here, and Boeing built this bird.

Fifty-three days to the Democratic convention.

Links of the week

Biden says ‘we did well,’ no concerns about debate performance – The Hill

Biden defends his debate performance as having done ‘well’ and dismisses calls to drop out of race at a Waffle House – DailyMail

Moment Joe Biden completely loses his train of thought answering a question 12 minutes into the debate… as Trump says: ‘I really don’t know what he just said’ – DailyMail

Jill leads Joe off stage after calamitous night; Dems freak out – NYPost

MSNBC Hosts Report ‘Panicked’ Biden Inner Circle Discussing Dropping Out – Mediaite

‘Deep, Wide, and a Very Aggressive Panic’: CNN’s John King Reports Dems May Ask Biden To Step Aside – Mediaite

Biden’s candidacy in doubt after weak, frozen debate performance against Trump leaves Dems in ‘aggressive panic’ – NYPost

The Most Important Presidential Debate Ever: It was an unmitigated disaster for Biden and a rout for Trump. Democrats will have to face reality. – Peggy Noonan, WSJ

Democrats Can’t Avoid the Biden Problem: The debate showed the President clearly isn’t up to four more years in office. – WSJ Editorial Board

The Biden Debate Debacle – Democrats Have Only Themselves To Blame – National Review Editors