The Outsider Perspective Issue 401 | The Beltway Outsiders

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Good Friday Morning! Especially to Costco, which started selling an “apocalypse dinner kit” in its stores with a shelf life of 25 years. The internet has dubbed it the WWIII supply rations. Each bucket has “a belly-bursting 150 servings of freeze-dried food, including pasta alfredo, cheesy macaroni, teriyaki rice, creamy pasta and vegetables, potato pot pie, tomato basil soup with pasta, chicken noodle soup, brown sugar and maple multi-grain, and apple cinnamon cereal.”

It’s not bad for $100. Of course, you need water to get it all to work. And I haven’t seen any water containers that last 25 years. They’ve got to work on that next.

Obviously, it’s been a hectic news week on the news front. I’m sticking with Biden/Democrats this week. The assassination attempt on Donald Trump was stunning, and I’m grateful he survived it. At some point, we’ll have to deal with the dumpster fire, which is the Secret Service’s response, but facts are still rolling in, making analysis difficult. It also defined the Republican convention and will be one of the defining moments of this race – unless Joe Biden drops out, which appears more likely.

We’re getting into that below: Is Biden in or out? This week, the Democrats’ soft-pressure campaign morphed into a hard-pressure campaign. I’ll cover that more below—links to follow.

Quick Hits:

Lou Dobbs passed away this week at the age of 78. Dobbs was famous for his show on CNN before spending a decade on Fox Business from 2011-2021. Donald Trump broke the news on his platform. I’ve long thought Lou Dobbs and Bill O’Reilly were the precursors showing how Donald Trump could jump into the Republican Party and do well. Neither man was conservative in the traditional sense but was more Republican in the Nixonian sense. Nixon and Eisenhower were not conservatives. They saw uses for and against Big Government and sought to use that towards Republican ends. Watergate shifted how people viewed many of those ideas and that era. And the Reagan landslides made modern conservatism believe it was forever ascendant. Lou Dobbs was one of those who pointed in a different direction.
The first post-assassination attempt polls are out and brutal for Biden. Reuters/Ipsos has consistently shown a tied race or Biden lead over the last several months. Even Ipsos broke towards Trump, showing him with a two-point lead. CBS News went from Trump +2 to Trump +5, Morning Consult from Trump +2 to Trump +4, and Emerson from Trump +3 to Trump +4. These polls are also pre-convention, which is when another bump traditionally occurs. Donald Trump is enjoying one of the most dominant polling positions he’s ever held. And this is happening against a backdrop of the Democratic Party completely melting down.
I stopped using FiveThirtyEight once I saw who ABC News hired to replace Nate Silver in that role. When that same guy said he was building a new model from the ground up, I had low expectations. Those expectations haven’t been met. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast model is, by many people’s estimation, the dumbest model out there right now. As Trump performs better in the polls, the model increases Biden’s chances of winning. Nate Silver wrote a piece about all the apparent issues with the FiveThirtyEight model. It’s an interesting read and explains why FiveThirtyEight is the only positive Biden election model out there.

Where you can find me this week

Please subscribe, rate, and review my podcast on iTunes, Spotify, or Google Play — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me in the algorithms. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter.

America Should Thank God For Protecting Us From Great Evil – Conservative Institute

Are Democrats Rigging The Convention For Biden? Looks That Way – Conservative Institute

The Rise Of Liberal BlueAnon – Conservative Institute

Biden And Democrats Backed Themselves Into A Corner

What a year the past week has been.

When I wrote this weekly missive last week, the push to kick Biden out was escalating. Since then, Trump survived an assassination attempt, Republicans had their convention, Trump picked a VP, and the effort to oust Biden died and was resurrected by Nancy Pelosi. Any of these topics could lead the newsletter. Still, we’re sticking with Democrats and Biden because that’s the craziest of the events – because a party removing an incumbent President from the ticket due to a loss of confidence has never happened in American history.

It’s the craziest because everyone—and I do mean everyone—is reporting that Joe Biden is on the verge of stepping down from the race. I’m going to work through that coverage below.

I think it’s helpful to create a quick timeline of Democratic actions to understand where we are and what’s coming.

Chuck Todd, host of Meet The Press, said on NBC News last Friday that Democrats had until the weekend to decide on Joe Biden.
Saturday, the Trump assassination attempt occurs in Pennsylvania. Intermixed in related news reports, Democrats were telling reporters that the effort to oust Biden was over. Republicans kick off their convention week starting on Monday.
Monday: It’s reported that the Biden wing of the Democratic Party is seeking to accelerate the nomination process. Instead of waiting for the convention in August, Democrats seek to complete the nomination process in July.
Wednesday, July 17, the remove Biden push restarted. Adam Schiff, a known ally of Nancy Pelosi, was published in the LA Times, saying Biden should step aside. Everyone in Washington DC knows Schiff would never publish this without Pelosi’s explicit approval and encouragement.
Wednesday afternoon, Biden cancels his events, says he has COVID, and leaves for his Delaware home.
Wednesday evening, the dam breaks in Democratic Politics. It’s reported that Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and Hakeem Jefferies all have conversations with Joe Biden about getting out of the race. The Schumer conversation is described as “harsh” and happened over the weekend.
Thursday morning: Jefferey Katzenberg, Hollywood producer and top Democratic fundraiser, had a similar meeting with Biden, telling him fundraising is drying up. NBC News cites Biden campaign sources suggesting the fundraising plunge is disastrous; they estimate Biden has lost 75% of the expected donations for July alone. The New York Times and Politico run separate pieces saying Democratic Convention Delegates are nervous about supporting Biden.
Thursday: The Washington Post publishes a piece saying Barack Obama is pushing Biden to drop out. This brings the entire Democratic leadership to bear on Biden dropping out, minus the Clintons. The New York Times, Politico, Axios, and NBC News all describe Biden’s campaign as a state of total collapse, at an end, or declaring Biden realizes he has no choice but to drop out.

What seems clear is that Democrats were bent on forcing Biden out last weekend. The Trump assassination attempt smothered that news story for several days. In response, Biden tried to outflank Democrats by moving the nomination process up to start this week. Schumer and Jefferies stopped that.

However, Biden rejected the pleas from Pelosi, Schumer, and Jefferies to drop out. In response, Democratic leadership waited until Wednesday to leak that they wanted Biden out and had confronted him about it. Obama joined the pile-on to increase the pain. These leaks don’t happen unless Biden is allowed an opportunity to step down. However, he rejected it.

Remember how I’ve consistently said to follow The New York Times Editorial Board and Politico on where things were headed? The day after the first debate, The NYT Editorial Board called for Biden to step aside, which triggered the onslaught from across the media and even Congressional allies for Biden to step aside.

That was the first part of the pressure campaign. That did not work. On July 13, the NYT Editorial Board escalated and called for Democratic Leadership to confront Biden and demand that he drop out. According to reports, Schumer had his meeting with Biden that very day.

I’m not saying the New York Times dictates what Democrats do—it’s the reverse. The New York Times Editorial Board reflects what Democratic Leadership believes. It’s a leading signal for where things are headed within the Democratic Party.

This is the secondary part of the pressure campaign. The Democratic leadership structure, political and media, came down on Biden’s head demanding one thing: leave. Biden is rejecting this (so far).

To be fair to Biden, he can rebuff this. Biden controls the delegates, at least for now. Biden is President and has the largest bully pulpit available. As long as he stays in, he can force everyone to bow to his wishes, more or less.

But it does not appear that’s going to happen.

By the time you read this, Biden may be out of the race. Something has broken in Democratic media. At first, I thought all the anti-Biden forces were leaking their preferred ending to this: Biden steps down. That may still be happening, but the press is uniformly breaking in one direction, regardless of the partisan affiliation.

It started with an unlikely source. Political journalist Mark Halperin reported/tweeted the following:

BREAKING NEWS: Multiples sources outline the apparent state of play on Biden at this time:

* plans to announce withdrawal from nomination as early as this weekend, with Sunday most likely

* Jon Meacham polishing up remarks

* Biden with NOT resign the presidency

* Biden will NOT endorse Harris

* open convention with Harris and about 3 others

* super delegates will not be allowed to vote on 1st ballot

* Harris is vetting at least four possible running mates, including Andy Beshear and possibly Shapiro

Who is Mark Halperin? At one time, he was one of the top political journalists in the country. He bounced around from ABC, Time, MSNBC, and other places. He wrote the two best books on the 2008 and 2012 elections: Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime; and Double Down: Game Change 2012. Those books are good because he was on the campaign trail for those candidates – I’ve read both, and they’re on my bookshelf.

He was knocked out of favor in 2017 when he got hit by sexual assault allegations from several women during the height of the #MeToo movement. He unsuccessfully tried to make a comeback in the last few years through MSNBC. He’s currently a correspondent on NewsMax.

I take Halperin seriously in terms of political campaigns, especially on the Democratic side. I know he’s well-sourced in the Obama campaign world, mainly because he was there.

Is he right? That’s unclear. But that’s a very specific set of reporting. And I’m taking him seriously because of his background. After his reporting, the press started getting hyper-negative about Biden’s campaign.

Here’s a smattering across the web as of Thursday evening.

Expectations Rising Among Democrats That Biden Will Reconsider: The President has not changed his mind as of now, multiple people close to him say. The latest Democratic defection to become public came from Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland — New York Times.
People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race: One person familiar with President Biden’s thinking cautioned that he had not yet made up his mind to leave the race, after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. – New York Times
Pelosi, Long Fixated on Winning, Is in No Mood to Lose With Biden: The former speaker has been marshaling her knowledge of the political map, polling data and fundraising information to press her case with President Biden that his re-election is in serious doubt. – New York Times
Once defiant, Biden is now ‘soul searching’ about dropping out of race – Reuters.
Pelosi has told House Democrats that Biden may soon be persuaded to exit race – Washington Post.
Top Democrats Prepare for Campaign Without Biden: Some said it was a matter of when—not if—the President bows out of the 2024 race as new data showed him losing in a landslide. – Wall Street Journal
Democrats see “aura of inevitability” around Biden withdrawal – Axios (No Paywall)
Bret Baier makes bold prediction: ‘Biden will not be the nominee’ – ‘Special Report’ anchor Bret Baier discusses reports that top Democrats believe President Biden will exit the 2024 presidential race in the coming days. – Fox News.
‘We’re close to the end’: Biden world braces for the possibility that the President will step aside: As Trump is about to accept his third consecutive GOP nomination for President, Biden is off the campaign trail with Covid. – NBC News
Democratic megadonors push Biden to quit race, as Kamala Harris events fill up: Events that feature Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden’s likely successor should he step aside, have started to sell out. – NBC News
Many senior Biden officials believe he must drop out as he becomes increasingly isolated – CNN.
Democrats who want Biden out see flicker of hope with high-level pressure: One source said congressional leaders’ warnings to Biden are “very encouraging.” – ABC News.
Biden Campaign Schedules an All-Hands as Defections Grow: “It is building to a head this weekend, and we should have movement,” one House Democrat told NOTUS on Thursday. – NOTUS
Democrats are looking past Joe Biden: Democrats woke up on Thursday morning in a post-Biden world, already looking ahead to what they saw as a likely exit that would pave the way for a new nominee. – Semafor

I’ve covered a lot here to convey the vast breadth of the belief that Biden is dropping out. When these stories first started dropping, I believed these were mostly anti-Biden leaks. That’s still an accurate way to sort these stories.

But there’s also little from the Biden side combating anything besides the usual rejections from the White House Press Secretary’s office. In politics, where there’s so much smoke, you must assume a fire is somewhere. Robert Costa at CBS News adds this color:

Sources close to President Biden tell me tonight they’re *furious* that while the President is trying to recover from Covid in Rehoboth, a pressure campaign keeps picking up speed. Lots of anger toward some donors for talking of $ drying up if he doesn’t quit, toward what they see as muted support from Pres. Obama, and toward Dem leaders who one source says are “hiding” behind statements. If they want him out, they’ll have to push, source adds. Feels disrespected. Still, a fluid moment and no one has figured out an effective way to quiet this drift of nervous Democrats away from Biden and know many Dems want Biden to just break at some point soon.

And for what it’s worth, Jon Meacham denies rumors he’s writing a speech. Can Biden shock the world and stay in? Absolutely. If he does, though, he won’t be campaigning much. The Presidential ticket with Biden at the top will get kneecapped and drained of money. Donors have cleared out, and money is either going to the Senate/House or donors are sitting on the sideline.

If Biden sticks it out and loses like that, his legacy will be one of a guy who stayed on the stage too long and hurt Democrats (his face will go right next to Ruth Bader Ginsberg on that front).

Biden is in a lose-lose scenario. He either stays in the race and loses. Or he could become the first President to step down before the convention because his party ditched him (Dan McLaughlin says this happened in 1852/1856, but that was over internal party disputes). If he steps aside, the press will write him up glowingly after spending the last three weeks bashing his brains in. But history will know the truth.

Where does that leave Halperin’s reporting and the rest of the press coverage? I don’t know. If Biden has settled on leaving the race, things like the convention and who endorses who will be hotly debated and negotiated. There’s no way that Pelosi, Obama, and the rest of them can come to an agreement on this quickly.

If the press is wish-casting what they want to happen (for Biden to leave), manifesting harder than Dorthy in The Wizard of Oz clicking her heels and begging for home, then this is the most extraordinary smoke campaign ever conducted by the Democratic press.

For Republicans, you can’t lose. Either Democrats devolve into the first actual open convention in modern history, complete with a total party meltdown. Or Biden stays at the top of the ticket, and Trump heads into campaign season with a severely wounded candidate that every media outlet and major Democratic Leader has declared cannot perform the job.

I’ve seen some Democrats claim that if they get Biden off the ticket, they can energize the base with Kamala Harris or [insert random Democrat name here], and voters will flock to them.

That’s hilariously wrong. If Biden is out, the party claiming to defend democracy will have kicked their presidential candidate out after the primaries, executed a media coup to force this to happen, and replaced said candidate outside the democratic process. And they’ll do this while claiming it’s the best for the voters, and Democrats know best.

That’s not democracy. It’s an aging oligarchy.

Democrats are panicking mainly about the polls. And that’s because their internal polls are worse than the public ones. The WSJ got access to those polls. It’s brutal:

The data, which was based on voter surveys compiled by Democratic firm Blue Rose Research and viewed by The Wall Street Journal, shows Biden losing not only all the swing states, but also behind or even in New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia and Maine. It shows the President leading by only 2.9 percentage points in New Jersey.

A major concern for Democrats up and down the ballot is the fact that half of voters, including 28% of those who backed Biden in 2020 and 52% of swing voters, believe that Democrats in office have been lying about the President’s mental fitness. The report says voters are likely to view Democrats’ defense of Biden as dishonest by a two-to-one margin.

Though the data, which was shared widely with Democrats in recent days, found Vice President Kamala Harris performing better than Biden against Donald Trump, it also shows that Republican attacks suggesting Harris wasn’t honest about the President’s health could be effective.

I’d looked at some recent Arizona and Nevada polling and thought, “If these states are in this bad shape, New Mexico likely isn’t far behind.” George W. Bush won it in the 2000s. If Trump breaks through the Midwest blue wall and crashes the Southwest, it’s going to be a landslide.

I’d also include Colorado in that mix. If Virginia can swing back towards Trump, Colorado can follow. In short, this could be the largest landslide since 2008 or Reagan.

Biden apparently has until Sunday to decide. After that, Democrats either have to give up their efforts, or escalate further. What’s further? I think it’s a medical diagnosis, as I’ve said for a few weeks. But we’ll see. To see that side of the story, Biden has to survive the weekend push to kick him out.

Links of the week

Mark Pincus: Biden Is Even Riskier Than Trump: I’m a major donor to the Democratic Party. Only one strategy can rescue the Dems: an open convention. – The Free Press

A changed Trump? Some allies detect an ‘existential’ shift after the shooting: The question is how long it lasts. – Politico

Trump shatters record for longest convention speech in HISTORY with at 92-minutes… where he complains about electric charging stations and calls D.C. a ‘horrible killing field’ – DailyMail

Trump Did Everything Wrong. So Why Did It Work? After Mitt Romney got walloped in 2012, the party’s brain trust warned the GOP it was losing the minority vote. Trump solved that problem by ignoring their advice. – Eli Lake, The Free Press

Biden’s COVID ‘Malaise’: The Carterization Of Biden Is Complete – John Podhoretz, Commentary

Biden Appears To Forget Name of ‘Black Man’ Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in BET Interview – Mediaite

Biden, 81, walks VERY slowly off Air Force One and pauses multiple times after being diagnosed with COVID… as Nancy Pelosi tells him it’s over – DailyMail

Hulk Hogan Brings Down the RNC House by Ripping Off His Shirt to Reveal MAGA-Wear – Mediaite

‘The Chart That Saved My Life’: Trump Praises Prop He Turned His Head Toward, Avoiding Assassin’s Killshot – Mediaite

‘There’s Something Happening’: CNN’s Van Jones Says Jubilant RNC Feels Like ‘Obama 2008’ Convention – Mediaite

Biden CABINET members in crisis talks over him dropping out as second Democratic senator demands he quit: Walls close in for Joe as top administration officials discuss ‘dim’ election prospects – DailyMail