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Good Friday Morning! New Zealand and its airports. Do you like giving long, lingering hugs before wishing someone farewell at the airport? If so, you need to keep it snappy in New Zealand. Outside the airport terminal in New Zealand, passengers are greeted with a sign that says, “Its hard to say goodbye. So make it quick. 3 mins max.”
The Associated Press called it a “cuddle cap,” and passengers on social media went off. The airport’s CEO replied, “The time limit is really a nicer way of saying, you know, get on with it.” A 20-second hug is long enough to release the wellbeing-boosting hormones oxytocin and serotonin, De Bono said. Anything longer was “really awkward.”
However, the New Zealand airport quickly said they did not have “hug police.” So, you have that going for you.
This week, I’m discussing the election and all the latest polling and early vote numbers—links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- One of the more bizarre updates out of the war in Ukraine lately is that North Korean troops have shown up to aid Russia. It’s unclear what the North Korean soldiers are doing. Still, the United States has verified that there are North Korean soldiers in Ukraine now. Ukraine has encouraged the soldiers to defect, which is exceedingly intelligent on their part. I’m sure North Korea and Russia have all kinds of ways to threaten these men from leaving, but it’s also the first real shot they’d have at getting away. It’s a strange turn in the ongoing war and suggests that Putin is seeking ways to broaden the use of troops without pushing more drafts onto Russians, who may push back at such a request.
- I’ve referenced several pieces from The Liberal Patriot lately because it’s an interesting look at Democratic-leaning thinkers who look at the Democratic Party and ask: why has it failed? This is a weird question if you look at things because Democrats won in 2020 with majorities everywhere and had a good midterm election in 2022. But Roy Teixeira doesn’t see it that way and wrote a piece this week titled: “The Progressive Moment Is Over.” His central thesis: 2020 saw the peak of the progressive movement through BLM and more – and everything from that has been a total failure. He quotes many liberal thinkers who are saying the same. He sees a Trump victory as a nail in the coffin to that moment.
Where you can find me this week
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Horse Race Ep. 014: Trump’s October Surprise | Harris Polling Disaster | Early Votes Counted
The Biden-Harris White House Has An Iranian Spy Leaking U.S. Intelligence In It – Conservative Institute
Trump’s Electoral Path Is Widening – Conservative Institute
November Jobs Report Will Show Helene’s Impact And Harris’ Problems – Conservative Institute
The Race Is Getting Away From Harris
The Presidential race has shifted hard in Trump’s favor in the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, when Harris had a two-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average, I wrote about Democrats panicking. Mark Halperin reported that internal polling among Democrats and Republicans both showed Harris badly behind across the board. Public polling has caught up to those internal polls.
Two weeks ago, Harris had a 2.2-point lead nationally in the averages. At the time I’m writing this, that lead has collapsed to 0.2 points. The RealClearPolitics averages have shifted two points in Trump’s favor. Trump has a lead of varying degrees across all the battleground states.
In short, the polls have coalesced around Donald Trump in the election’s closing days, just like in 2016 and 2020. The significant difference between this year versus the previous two contests is that Trump is polling far better than he ever has in any previous contest. His 48.5% mark in RealClearPolitics is the highest he’s ever polled in the averages.
Trump’s polling numbers are so good that at this point, you have to assume one of two things: 1) He’s going to sweep the battleground states, or 2) Harris’ support is being underrepresented in the polls, and her strength in the Rust Belt is a signal that she’s not in as bad a position as we might otherwise think.
If Election Day were tomorrow, in order to win, Harris would need the polls to be off by a minimum of two points in her favor. Full stop. I believe that she needs to hit a minimum 3-point lead nationally to have a shot in the battleground states (Nate Silver says 2.5 points). She’s just not there based on the data that we have right now.
Michael Baharaeen at The Liberal Patriot puts forward the case for Harris winning. It’s a great piece, and I think he’s right about what needs to happen. The bullet points on what Harris needs are:
- Gain with white voters
- Get strong support from Asian Americans
- Sneaky (relative) strength with seniors
- Independents leaning toward Harris
- Have polls show her favorability numbers higher than Trump
- Have her reliable base of voters all show up, versus a Trump underperformance
He expounds on each of those points, and his research is thorough. My only addition is the polling error in her favor. That signals that she’s being polled incorrectly, as Trump has been for the last two cycles.
Here’s the growing problem for Democrats: the early vote.
NBC News has an ongoing tally of early votes cast across the country. At the time I’m writing this, they’re showing just shy of 31 million votes cast in the race (it will likely be higher by the time you read this). Suppose you use the 2020 turnout number of 155 million total votes cast. In that case, we’re close to a fifth of the total vote already being in for the race on a national level.
We obviously don’t know how independents will vote. Still, Republicans have important leads over Democrats in head-to-head vote totals in critical states like Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Georgia. I mention Florida because on Thursday, Republicans took the lead in the early vote over Democrats in Miami-Dade County. Remember, Miami-Dade is a minority-majority county; to win it, you need strong minority support.
Of the states with early voting, I only really trust the estimates out of one: Nevada. Jon Ralston is a Democrat-leaning journalist, and his analysis is usually spot on for vote analysis in Nevada. What does the data in Nevada say? Ralston writes:
Distilled – they don’t say it’s over but they also don’t say Democrats should brush off the GOP lead that has never before existed in presidential years during early voting.
425,000 have voted, or 21 percent, and the GOP has a 16,000-voter margin in ballots, or 4 percent.
If the turnout pattern remains this way, Harris will lose Nevada.
Week One of the two weeks of early voting ends tomorrow.
In 2022, the Dems had a 21,000-ballot lead after Week One. In 2020, the Dems had about a 50,000-ballot lead after one week.
Instead, they are going to be well behind. The volume of mail ballots is down, too, which is either a concern or an opportunity for the Dems. About 450,000 mail ballots were cast in Clark four years ago – only about a third of that number have been counted so far, and the total could get to half a million this year. Or not. Need to keep an eye on those numbers.
The Dems almost always do better in the second week, and they need to in 2024, not to build an insurmountable lead, as they have in the past, but to stay in the game. I don’t know of any smart Dem who thinks this is going to be anything but a slog and a 50-50 race possibly decided by a few thousand votes.
What they don’t say is this: That may be a best-case for them at this point, to be that close.
He’s starting to update three times a day, so if you visit the link I cite, you’ll get his latest data. I’m checking it in the morning and evening.
In short, the thing that cost Trump the 2020 election (and cost Republicans in 2022), people not early voting, is gone. Republicans are early voting in droves across the country in states that allow it.
The remaining question is this: are Democrats just not voting, or will they make up the difference on Election Day? The response you’ll get from some Democrats is that Republicans are simply cannibalizing their Election Day vote, and Democrats can make up the difference on Election Day. Also, Democrats point to the mass of independent votes in these states, where we don’t know how people are voting and claim they’ll win those voters.
Both of those things are certainly possible.
My nagging issue is that early voting can also show enthusiasm for one side or another. It’s clear that Republicans are rushing to the polls in every state. We’re not witnessing the same thing for Democrats, especially in swing states.
The candidates’ actions are instructive, too: Harris is deeply worried about motivating her base to vote. The “Trump is Hitler” messaging is not about independents or Republican-leaning voters; this is purely a play to motivate the Democratic base. Harris is struggling to get Black voters to the polls as well. Harris is actively trying to get her base out, while Trump is working harder to get voters outside his base.
Returning to Nevada, Ralston quotes a Republican operative who he thinks is accurate:
..the problem for Democrats comes up when we look at the low propensity voters.
GOP 2 of 4 voters – 25.3% Turnout
DEM 2 of 4 voters – 20.9% Turnout
Republicans have a nearly 4.5% turnout advantage among voters who had missed two of the last four general elections.
GOP 1 of 4 voters – 23.6% Turnout
DEM 1 of 4 voters – 18.6% Turnout
Amongst the infrequent 1 of 4 voters, Republicans open up their largest turnout advantage of nearly 5%.
Then, when you look at new voters and voters who have never voted in a general election, Republicans continue to dominate.
GOP 0 of 4 voters – 17.8% Turnout
DEM 0 of 4 voters – 13.9% Turnout
Now, after all of those numbers what does this mean?
The Republican early vote lead will continue to grow. The GOP just has more active and interested voters and is pulling people off the couch who normally don’t vote.
This analysis is only Nevada, but we’ve likely gotten at least a fifth of the vote. Harris is in deep trouble if we see these numbers in other battleground states. We know she’s struggling with her base, and Trump is pulling in people who don’t usually vote. That’s a bad combo, and it likely explains why we’re seeing Trump do well in national polls.
A question I keep getting is this: Where do I think the race is? I think the betting markets have it right: Trump is at 60% odds if you average out all betting markets. He’s surged in recent weeks to that point as polls have lined up with him.
What needs to change for Harris? This next week’s early vote is going to carry a lot of weight. Harris and Democrats need to win the next week’s early vote to even have a shot. If the GOP advantage continues, Mark Halperin is likely right that the evening of election night could be a short affair. If Democrats continue lagging into Election Day, they will have no choice but to push all their chips into winning Election Day, something they haven’t done in several cycles.
To wrap up, I will give you three states to watch. Suppose Trump’s polling numbers are this good, and early voting continues trending toward the GOP. In that case, three possible states could get close for Democrats that are not currently battlegrounds:
- New Mexico
- Virginia
- New Hampshire
I made the case for New Mexico on the YouTube podcast. On Virginia, Trump announced a last-minute Virginia rally with Gov. Glenn Youngkin. I’ve not seen much public polling of the state, but it wouldn’t shock me if it’s hard to call Virginia on election night.
Finally, New Hampshire. I’ve pointed out for a while that Harris consistently underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016. Clinton polled well in New Hampshire, but she ended up only winning by 0.3 points. Emerson released a poll late Thursday that showed Trump within 3 points of Harris in New Hampshire, within the margin of error.
Also important, Emerson showed former Senator Kelly Ayotte, who is now running for Governor, winning that race. If Republicans win the Governor’s race, Ayotte could drag Trump across the finish line in New Hampshire.
However, these states will only come online for Trump IF polling continues in his direction and he performs better than in 2016. If we see these same kinds of numbers next week, Democrats will panic even more because it means they’re struggling across the board.
Democrats have to reverse the trend and get their base to the polls.
Ten days to Election Day.
Links of the week
It’s Close, But the Signs Aren’t Good for Harris – RealClearPolitics
What if Joe Biden was the better candidate all along? – The Hill
PIERS MORGAN: Trump’s genius McDonald’s stunt will fry Kamala at the ballot box – NYPost
Despite the media caterwauling, voters aren’t buying that Trump is a ‘threat to democracy’ – NYPost
Democrats fear race may be slipping away from Harris – The Hill
Rising Support Among Independent Voters Good Sign For Trump – CNN
Kamala Harris has a Biden dilemma – Washington Examiner
Unseen Middle-Class Black Voters Move Right – RealClearPolitics
MSNBC host left stunned after asking Black and Hispanic Republicans why they’re voting Trump – Daily Mail
Corporate America’s leftward shift – Axios
Biden-Harris Admin Promotes Pentagon Employee Tied to Iranian Influence Network: Ariane Tabatabai, outed as a member of the Iran Experts Initiative, will now lead DoD’s ‘force and education training’ – Washington Free Beacon
Meet Kamala’s Megadonors: Michael Bloomberg, Alex Soros, and James Murdoch are among the billionaires behind Harris’s cash flow. – The Free Press
Gallup: 84% of Americans Want This Protection for Democracy – Hot Air
Is a TikToker with 6.8M followers causing a cucumber shortage? – Freight Waves
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Mark Halperin: Democrats feel there’s no time for [Harris] to get better.
Satire of the week
Pope Francis Excommunicates All Of World’s Catholics So He Can Have Quiet Weekend Alone – Onion
Final Nail In The Coffin? Former Blockbuster Employee Accuses Trump Of Failing To Return VHS Tape Of ‘Baby Geniuses’ In 1999 – Babylon Bee
Frustrated Democrats To Consider Letting Voters Pick The Presidential Candidate Next Time – Babylon Bee
Skynet loses network access for overdue Cyber Awareness Challenge – Duffel Blog
I LIVED IT: I Made Fun of Myself and My Friend Added to the Bit Instead of Correcting Me – Reductress
Nation’s B-List Celebrities Announce Plans to Randomly Appear in Ad for Online Casino App – The Hard Times
Toy Story 5 to Focus on Andy’s Funko Pop Collection – The Hard Drive
North Korean Soldiers Sent To Fight In Ukraine Enjoying Well Deserved Respite From North Korea – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!