The Outsider Perspective Issue 447 | The Beltway Outsiders

If you’d like to read this issue on my website, click here! If you’d like to sign-up, and receive this in your inbox each week, click here! Read past issues here.

Good Friday Morning! Except to a woman in São Paulo, Brazil, who did everything possible to avoid an Uber fare. City cameras caught the moment when she hurled herself out of the driver’s car onto the sidewalk to avoid paying a $1.40 fare in cash.

Allegedly, she got into a car she said she didn’t mean to, and the fare was higher than expected. The driver said they could sort it out with the police. She proceeded to open the door, jump out of the moving car, and walk in the opposite direction. The driver went back, and they eventually resolved the issue. But that’s one way to beat an Uber charge.

This week, I’m jumping into the disaster that is the Los Angeles riots. I have some brief thoughts on the conflict erupting between Iran and Israel below – links to follow.

Quick Hits:

New newsletter launched: Capital Digest! My thanks to those of you who are subscribers to the American Almanac, which continues to grow. The success of the Almanac led to me helping out on another project: Capital Digest. It is more about economics, investing, and business news. We’re planning some heavy expansion on this project, long-term, just like the Almanac. You can sign up for free here.
The American Almanac is growing! I want to express my continued gratitude to those of you who subscribe, share, and help us grow. You can subscribe here for free.

Where you can find me this week

Please subscribe, rate, and review The Horse Race on YouTube — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter and The American Almanac.

Violent Liberals Pivot From Gaza To Immigration – Conservative Institute

Democrats Started The Los Angeles Riots – Conservative Institute

Democrats Are Terrified Of Their Base – Conservative Institute

The End Of The World Obama Built

Israel’s decision to strike Iran happened while I was setting up to write. I will pass on commenting on the hard military facts because the fog of war is too thick. However, there’s a broader point that can be made tonight.

We’ve reached the final landing spot of Barack Obama’s foreign policy that he kicked off with his infamous “A New Beginning” speech in 2009, written by his moron of an advisor, Ben Rhodes (a man that Obama’s staffers nicknamed“Hamas”). In that speech, Obama was trying to shed the shadow of the Bush years and reset everything.

He failed. Although, he would probably say we failed him. However, his belief that he was a modern Metternich or Kissinger, capable of rebalancing the world stage, was a level of hubris we haven’t seen in decades.

Toward the end of Obama’s “New Beginning” speech, he specifically talked about Iran and its nuclear ambitions. Obama shrugged off all the past:

Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has played a role in acts of hostage-taking and violence against U.S. troops and civilians. This history is well known. Rather than remain trapped in the past, I’ve made it clear to Iran’s leaders and people that my country is prepared to move forward. The question now is not what Iran is against, but rather what future it wants to build.

I recognize it will be hard to overcome decades of mistrust, but we will proceed with courage, rectitude, and resolve. There will be many issues to discuss between our two countries, and we are willing to move forward without preconditions on the basis of mutual respect. But it is clear to all concerned that when it comes to nuclear weapons, we have reached a decisive point. This is not simply about America’s interests. It’s about preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that could lead this region and the world down a hugely dangerous path.

And so, with Obama claiming “A New Beginning” in the Middle East and a “Reset” with Russia, we’ve gotten the past 17 years of disastrous foreign policy foisted upon the world. He re-empowered Iran and sat idly by while Russia began its first incursions into Ukraine. He charted a “new path” while everyone else stuck to their guns.

In 2013, Barack Obama led the effort to bring the United States into the initial stages of the JCPOA, also known as the Iran Deal. He claimed, at the time, that this deal would prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. After a series of further negotiations and agreements, the United States entered the JCPOA on January 20, 2016.

Trump pulled the United States from the deal in 2018 and cranked up the sanctions, which crippled Iran. Biden’s team eased those sanctions but was unable to rebuild Obama’s Iran deal.

What was evident to everyone during the Obama and Biden administrations was this: reducing sanctions and pushing cash infusions back into Iran would embolden their nuclear problem and empower their terrorist proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, etc). The critics were right.

The path to Israel striking Iran’s nuclear program started with Obama’s deal and ended Thursday night. It took 12 years, but the final foreign policy fruits of Obama’s legacy have been harvested. Israel had little choice, and Trump let them loose.

Obama’s legacy is the first thing destroyed on the American side with Israel’s strikes against Iran.

But Iran brought this on themselves, too. The October 7 attacks shifted Israel’s stance from a defensive crouch towards Iran to an understanding that destroying the nuclear program was a necessity. Israel weathered the blithering nonsense of the Biden administration and got to Trump. Five months into Trump’s second term, we’re here.

On April 12, 2025, Trump gave Iran 60 days to agree to a deal. He sent letters, negotiators, and more. Israel’s strikes on Iran hit on day 61.

I’ve seen several commentators try to claim that Israel betrayed the United States and ran off and attacked Iran by itself. That’s not true. I don’t care what the United States says officially in any statement. Without looking at any of the reporting, I know for a fact the following things:

Donald Trump authorized this strike.
The United States helped with intelligence sharing.
The United States knew in advance, which is why we evacuated.
The United States is providing ongoing support.

I also know the following: the Arab world, led by Saudi Arabia, is thrilled with these attacks. A nuclear Iran means that these countries would pursue nuclear weapons as well. And this isn’t a region anyone wants to be nuclearized (outside Israel).

There is a reason Russia invaded Ukraine in the Obama and Biden administrations, and Iran green-lit the Hamas attacks on October 7 in Israel. And there’s a reason China walked all over the Obama administration. No one respected either Obama or Biden or any of their staffers.

Those same countries did respect Bush, and they do with Trump. The point is simple: they’ve used military power to make a point. You can’t write useless letters all day long like the Obama-Biden years. You have to act.

This is not the beginning of WWIII, the doomsayers are saying. Iran can’t do that, and neither Russia nor China is running to help them. This is about Israel and Iran. If Iran loses its nuclear capacity, it will be defanged. It’s a worst-case scenario for the regime.

I do expect this to be a prolonged conflict. Iran will have to answer. The United States is likely to assist in that response. But a world without a nuclear Iran is a much safer place, and it prevents the Middle East from spiraling into a nuclear arms race.

Obama’s presidency has come to an end. Now, we will begin charting a new path forward. The region can finally start something new.

Links of the week

Israel launches bombs against Iran – DailyMail

Israel hits Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership in unprecedented strikes – CNN

Nothing About the L.A. “Protest” Is Organic: How did the rioters know to show up covering their faces with the same symbolic gear? – City Journal

Have Democrats Learned Anything? – Ruy Teixeira

Britain’s War on Free Speech – The American Mind

How Three Cinematic Jesuses Explain American Divisions – Acton Institute

Tipping the Scales: Why So Many Cases Against Trump Are Heard by Democrat-Appointed Judges – RealClearInvestigations

The Forgotten Inventor of the Sitcom: Gertrude Berg’s “The Goldbergs” was a bold, beloved portrait of a Jewish family. Then the blacklist obliterated her legacy. – The New Yorker

X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week

The money trail in the No Kings rally.