The Outsider Perspective Issue 465 | The Beltway Outsiders

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Good Friday Morning! Except for a particular set of Olive Garden guests, who went so hard into the “never-ending” pasta bowls that servers were left saying, “I’m worried about them.” The receipt for all the orders went viral online, with other servers chiming in that it took them forever to serve the guests and that they ended up with a $150 tab.

That’s impressive given that the deal is only $13.99, and these guests took that as a personal challenge, scaring everyone else in the process. Some commenters asked, “Are these people just perpetually constipated because how can you even eat that much pasta without having a life-threatening bowel obstruction,” one wrote. They continued, “I’m genuinely worried about them too lol this receipt is like a miserable cry for help for both the server and patrons.”

It’s all fun and games until you hit gluttony itself in the Olive Garden all-you-can-eat pasta line.

This week, I’m going to get into the government shutdown, the politics behind it, and what is coming down the pike—links to follow.

Quick Hits:

Illegal drivers are a growing problem. Biden’s decision to let the borders open continues to create issues. This week, yet another illegal truck driver killed three. He was caught during Biden’s administration, but released. And then Gavin Newsom’s California gave him a driver’s license for semi-trucks. It’s just getting old… and no explanation from Democrats is working.
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Where you can find me this week

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The ‘No Kings’ Hypocrisy Was On Full Display – If Anyone Cared – Conservative Institute

The AI Future Is Here And We Are Not Ready – Conservative Institute

The NBA Makes The Case Against Legalized Sports Gambling – Conservative Institute

The Government Shutdown Heads To The End Of The Month

We’re not getting an end to the government shutdown until at least November 1. Three big things are looming at the beginning of November that will crank the pain of the shutdown much higher.

Obamacare marketplace opens for new enrollment.
SNAP benefits end, federal and state
Federal workers will be out for an entire month, resulting in lost wages

The first one has gotten all the coverage, while the other two have less. On the Obamacare note, Democrats are trying to get to the open enrollment period so people actually see the higher premiums coming for them.

What Democrats want is for Americans to start getting notices from health insurance providers on the marketplace that higher premiums are coming. At that point, Democrats will blame Republicans for everything and then – perhaps – vote for the House-passed CR.

In reality, this shutdown is already well past that point. Politico reported a few days ago that the time to extend subsidies was long gone, and even if Congress magically passed extensions this week, higher premiums were already locked in.

“The ship has sailed,” said Ingrid Ulrey, CEO of the Washington State Health Benefit Exchange. “Congress missed the opportunity to make this decision early enough for us to reset our markets for open enrollment, and to make it clean and easy for people to come in and see premiums that include the savings from the enhanced level of premium tax credits.”

Consumers are likely to see, on average, double-digit premium increases in 2026 plan offerings, according to an analysis from health policy research firm KFF. The hikes reflect rates insurers have filed under the assumption that the subsidies will expire at the end of the year, and other factors such as increasing health costs.

And that’s because it’s not just subsidies ending up driving up costs. There’s more to things than just that.

The second prominent cliff is the end of SNAP benefits, which helps feed 40 million people. Many states are trying to bridge this gap. Still, with no time to plan because of the Democratic shutdown, those benefits are effectively done on November 1.

That’s going to be a second pain point that Democrats are trying to pin on Republicans as well.

The last one is simple: no paychecks are going out any time soon. So now you’re talking about a month for people to get back on their feet.

Those are the due dates. There’s another big date involved, too: November 4, 2025. That’s the date all these off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere take place.

The time between October 31 and November 4 will be interesting to watch, because it’s going to dictate many of the talking points. The Democratic base is spoiling for a fight and won’t take no for an answer. That’s why the bizarre “No Kings” protests happened this past weekend—it’s all about drumming up the base and keeping the heat on Congressional Democrats and the upcoming elections.

The Hill spoke with Democrats off the record and got some telling quotes:

Some Democrats skeptical about their leadership’s hard-line stance against reopening the federal government privately acknowledge that they fear getting “hammered” by their liberal base if they vote for a Republican funding bill.

In that context, Democrats know they will get hit hard by a number of voices on the left if they do not get something for opening the government.

“People are going to get hammered” if they vote for the House-passed bill to reopen the government and keep it funded through November 21, said one Democratic senator who requested anonymity to talk candidly about their party.

A second person familiar with the political dynamics within the Senate Democratic caucus, who spoke with The Hill ahead of the “No Kings” protests, said centrist senators are fearful of breaking with leaders while party activists are planning the anti-Trump rallies.

“We would have enough votes” to reopen the government “if people were not terrified of getting the guillotine,” the second person said.

“Getting the guillotine” is harsh language from the French. The Democratic base views Schumer as having caved in the spring, and everything has been bad since then.

Notably, the Hill piece said to watch the Georgia delegation, which has a tough reelection race ahead. Jon Ossoff is on deck for Democrats.

Democratic strategists say the main driver of the political fear within the Democratic caucus is online fundraising, which is largely driven by social media.

Sources familiar with the political motivations driving the Senate Democrats’ shutdown stance point to Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.), who is the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection in 2026, as an example of the dilemma facing Democrats.

One Democratic insider argued that Ossoff, who represents a swing state that voted for President Trump in 2024, needs to raise money from the liberal base to win.

“His calculus is, ‘Do I vote to open the government up and get crushed and can’t raise a single dollar of low-dollar money or do I vote to shut the government down and get $3 million [from online fundraising]?'” the source argued.

Until this week, Ossoff had voted against reopening the government. He’s trying to build that credibility with the online rabid base of Democrats. However, he did jump ship to vote with Republicans on paying federal employees, joining the other Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.

What you’re seeing here is the formation of the coalition of Democrats who would break now: Ossoff and Warnock would bring the total number of Democrats to five. The pressure is on Schumer at that point.

Once you hit November 1, there’s no fixing the insurance premiums. Those are locked in. SNAP benefits are toasted. And you’re days out from big elections in Virginia and New Jersey. If Democrats underperform in those states, the bellicosity of Schumer backfires, and suddenly he’s the scapegoat for lost elections.

Note: I do not expect Republicans to win in either state. But the shutdown could impact things in unexpected ways.

In short, though, there are cracks in the Democratic coalition in the Senate. The Punchbowl reporting on this suggests there’s no off-ramp in sight, and I’d generally agree.

But we’re also to the point where Democrats are asking for Trump to waltz in and fix things. Neither John Thune nor Mike Johnson has any interest in saving Democrats here – and why should they? – the contours of this benefit Republicans.

The question is, what happens on November 1? There’s some belief that Democrats may magically declare victory and end the shutdown that day, claiming they spent a month trying to stop Republicans from letting premiums go up.

They could also push past that date. I tend to believe the pressure on Democrats to take a “moral” or “rhetorical” victory on November 1 will be great, and they’ll do that to avoid any big impact on the election-day vote. If they push past that, then we’ll see.

But the pain only ratchets up from here.

I’ll note that Donald Trump is meeting with China’s president, Xi Jinping, on October 30. He’ll be in South Korea. He could jet back. But that meeting will overshadow anything happening in Congress on that date, which will anger Democrats.

But this is the road Democrats chose. They’re demanding things they have no leverage to get, and are trying to blame everyone but themselves for what is happening now. They counter that Republicans hold all the levers, and that’s true. But polling is showing Democrats getting as much of the blame for this as Republicans.

That’s not where you want to be while claiming leverage. Trump continues to outpace both Barack Obama and George W. Bush in approval ratings at these points in their presidencies.

Democrats wanted this to cave Republicans in on polling. That’s not happened. November 1 looms.

Quick Hits:

Where you can find me this week

The Government Shutdown Heads To The End Of The Month

Links of the week

X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week

Satire of the week

Thanks for reading!