The Outsider Perspective Issue 466 | The Beltway Outsiders

If you’d like to read this issue on my website, click here! If you’d like to sign-up, and receive this in your inbox each week, click here! Read past issues here.

Good Friday Morning! Especially to the sandwich that Americans are calling one of their favorites: the grilled cheese. I seriously underestimated the number of grilled cheese sandwiches Americans eat each year.

According to the survey, “Americans are eating three grilled cheese sandwiches per month, on average, although some enjoy them more often than others, with those in Delaware and Idaho enjoying them most often (five sandwiches per month, on average).”

However, when I think of the noble grilled cheese, I think of soups. Not true of a lot of Americans, though:

Nearly four in 10 Americans (39%) said a grilled cheese is best enjoyed when dipped into a sauce (once again with those in Idaho (66%) and Delaware (56%) most likely to feel this way), and people’s favorite sauces to dip into turned out to be ranch (19%), ketchup (14%) and honey mustard (13%).

Their favorite additions to make a grilled cheese really pop were bacon (41%), ham (39%), and tomatoes (25%), although some opt for more interesting inside additions, such as pickles (11%), pulled pork (11%), potato chips (10%), and french fries (10%).

I have to say, we should probably check in on the people living in Delaware and Idaho to see if everything is alright.

In a less exciting survey, we’re getting election results next week. I’ll give my overview of those races, predictions, and what I think the media narratives will be on the backside—links to follow.

Quick Hits:

Witches, pagans, and surgeon generals. Erick Erickson had a piece on Trump’s pick to be the next surgeon general, and how Christians are responding to a person who very clearly believes in new age mysticism being the person overseeing American health (a vote on her nomination got delayed because she went into labor). What’s also troubling are the other observations he makes in the piece about trends in broader society, which he noticed at a Barnes & Noble bookstore. It’s worth a read, and I found myself in agreement with him.
The American Almanac is growing! Hundreds of thousands of people now read us daily. I want to express my sincere gratitude to those of you who subscribe, share, and help us grow. You can subscribe here for free. Additionally, please check out Capital Digest (finance/economics), Conservative Legal News, and Real Talk Digest. There are more projects in the pipeline. If you don’t see anything in your inbox a day after signing up, check your spam folder.

Where you can find me this week

Please subscribe, rate, and review The Horse Race on YouTube — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter and The American Almanac.

Democrat’s Fake Outrage About The East Wing – Conservative Institute

America’s Military Strikes On Cartels Is Unambiguously Good – Conservative Institute

Biden’s Corrupt Presidency Joins The Dustbin Of History – Conservative Institute

Democrats Poised For Off-Year Wins… But Not Much Else

With elections coming next week, I wanted to touch on some predictions and the talking points and narratives that will emerge. The three big races are in New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia.

New Jersey and Virginia are similar in that the party holding the White House is typically at a disadvantage in state races. There are a few exceptions to this rule, but by and large it usually holds true.

I won’t delve too deep into the weeds, because it’s not necessary for off-year elections. But I’ll hit the high points:

Democrats hold a 2.4 point lead in the generic ballot.
Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 45%, with 52% disapproving.
Trump continues running slightly ahead of Obama and Bush at this point in his second term.

The state of the race in 2025 is simple: Democrats have a slight national advantage, while holding demographic edges in all three states we’re looking at this year. No one is going to call New York, New Jersey, and Virginia purple battleground states. However, there are interesting undercurrents in all three.

Michael Baharaeen has a good breakdown of the granular views of these races at The Liberal Patriot. My analysis largely aligns with his—for reference, it’s a center-left election blog, mainly catering to Democrats —but I like them for analysis purposes.

Big picture: I expect Democrats to win all the key races in Virginia and New Jersey, and I’m expecting Mamdani to win the New York City mayoral race. Democrats will try to draw implications from that.

The closest of the three races will be in New Jersey. Democrats are trying to win the governorship for the third term in a row, which is difficult. Also, New Jersey has some trends suggesting it is becoming more purple. But the environment suggests an edge for Democrats, and I’m not seeing anything that would indicate overperformance by the GOP.

In Virginia, Spanberger has had a steady lead. The Jay Jones texts suggest the AG race could flip to Republicans, but I have my doubts. What I believe is happening is that Democrats are saying they’ll support Spanberger at the top, but then just not answering lower-level races in the polls. Her lead is enough that I think coattails should sweep the ticket.

Winsome Earle-Sears is struggling with two big problems. First, Northern Virginia hates Trump and flipped back into #Resist mode. The impacts on federal employees at the start of the Trump administration (Elon Musk / DOGE) endeared him to none of that area of the world. That’s enough to flip the state back to Democrats.

Second, Sears didn’t run on the Youngkin record. I get the point in using cultural issues as a wedge point, like Trump. But it would have been smarter to run on bread-and-butter issues tactically in this environment. Leaning into Youngkin’s record was a smarter play, though it would not have saved her in this environment.

In New York City, there’s been an attempt to push people to Cuomo. And I’m just not seeing it. In the Democratic primaries, Cuomo had 5-10 point leads over Mamdani and severely underperformed in those polls. Depending on your view, Cuomo underperformed, or Mamdani wildly overperformed. It’s probably a little of both.

But right now, in the general election, RealClearPolitics has Mamdani with a 15.5% lead over Cuomo. Mamdani isn’t cracking 50%, which is why I don’t view him as overly popular. But there’s no evidence Cuomo will overperform his polls; he’s a chronic underperformer.

What does all this tell us? Frankly, not much.

What will the media do? Run with it.

Democrats are desperate to claim any reversal of fortune since getting wiped out by Trump. Wins in lean-Democrat states are things that they desperately need.

Democratic wins in these races, especially in Mamdani, will be used as a cudgel to claim Democrats are winning against Trump. That’s where this race is headed. The radical left will use Mamdani as evidence that they should drive the ship over moderate Democrats.

I don’t view these races in these terms; I see these as weak Democrat wins in favorable states. Democrats are in the middle of their own Tea Party moment right now, and need a win. So they’re going to praise these victories like it’s Scott Brown swooping in to vote down Obamacare.

If I’m right, these races and the shift will supercharge radicals in the Democratic primaries. The crazy stories, like the nut job in Maine running for Senate with Nazi tattoos, will get worse because people will view Mamdani as their signal to jump into a race. Republicans lost many midterm races in 2010-2014 due to bad candidates jumping into primaries.

We’re going to witness something like that happen here because no one can control the Democratic base right now. Trump broke the Democratic Party in 2024. They are desperately trying to right the ship. How they do that is unclear, though. Democratic leadership is just trying to stay afloat.

Democrats have a state problem. Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer both hail from New York, and they’ll have Mamdani and AOC eating at their heels this entire time, also from New York. On the flip side, Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris are really the only people capable of winning the Democratic ticket in 2028 – both from California.

It’s a party whose leadership and opposition are in the same place. We’re witnessing the most coastal version of the party attempt to counter Republicans, who are everywhere.

If I’m right, the media is going to run with these victories as evidence of a repudiation of Trump and the Republican Party, and hype things up for next year. I would pour cold water on all of that. Democrats are severely underperforming when compared to any previous wave cycle a year out.

Things could change, but right now, I’d bank on a slight shift towards Democrats in the House, with Republicans holding the Senate. We’re not looking at significant advantages for Democrats right now. That’s why these 2025 races are a little muted. Democrats are winning, but only within expected margins. There are no blowouts in the polling data.

Suppose I’m wrong, and we see Republicans overperform polls in 2025. In that case, the weeping and gnashing of teeth among Democrats will reach a new level. This would be the funniest outcome to me, so I root for it, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

We’ll find out soon.

Quick Hits:

Where you can find me this week

Democrats Poised For Off-Year Wins… But Not Much Else

Links of the week

X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week

Satire of the week

Thanks for reading!