The Outsider Perspective Issue 456 | The Beltway Outsiders

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Good Friday Morning! Except for Cracker Barrel, which is in the middle of a $700 million renovation and rebranding plan, which is souring it with customers. Wall Street investors made their opinion felt, with the stock wiping out several hundred million in valuation before slightly recovering.

I’m biased. I’m from the city where Cracker Barrel was founded, so I see this as a total disaster. And everyone has had issues with their food for a few years, now. The company lost its way after the founders left. The result of this rebranding is a disaster. It’s so bad that Steak ‘n Shake and other brands piled on.

There are no more changes for me this week – it’s back to normal on my end. This week, I’m going to dive into the national redistricting fight and explain why everyone is walking into this project blind – links to follow.

Quick Hits:

When in doubt, dunk on CNN. I made Twitchy this week after dunking on a CNN reporter. After a Trump tweet came out attacking Gavin Newsom, CNN breathlessly reported that Trump attacked Newsom with no proof on bad polling. Except, as I point out, CNN itself had run a piece discussing Newsom’s poor polling just the previous day. And, if you read that piece further, it quotes the reporter in question. Never change, CNN.
Virginia Governor’s Race Heats Up. I was beginning to think the Virginia race might be a sleepy walk towards a sure Democratic win. That seems less likely now. A far-left protestor held up a sign at a Winsome Earle-Sears event in Arlington, VA. It said if she didn’t support trans kids in bathrooms, then the protestor would demand race-segregated bathrooms. Video caught the head of the Arlington Democrats group rushing over to the woman, explaining how bad the sign was – she did not care. As I’m writing this newsletter, this story is going viral on social media. Bang up job by Virginia Democrats.
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Where you can find me this week

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America Stands Alone Defending The West – Conservative Institute

Biden’s Illegal Immigration Disaster Claims Another Life. – Conservative Institute

The Immigration Problem Is Far Worse Than Anyone Reported – Conservative Institute

The Redistricting Fight No One Really Wants

There are a lot of people over their skis in this mid-decade redistricting (gerrymandering) fight. And I mean that on both sides. Both parties are making some assumptions about the rest of this decade that I’m not sure will hold. However, this fight is almost certain to hurt Democrats worse than Republicans.

First, the bad part for both parties. Redistricting is typically done at the start of the decade. We hold an official census every ten years, and the answers to that process dictate the allocation of electoral votes, the number of House seats, and more. While redoing maps in the middle of a decade isn’t unheard of, it’s also not typical behavior. Absent court fights over maps (which is an active thing for some states right now), these are usually once-a-decade fights.

Texas is pushing redistricting at Trump’s behest in an attempt to squeeze out everything possible to maintain a firmer grip on Congress ahead of midterms. Trump doesn’t want to lose seats, and he’s looking for ways to get ahead of this now.

Some states already redrew their maps to accomplish this very fact. Notably, Tennessee did this by splitting up Nashville to eliminate one Democratic seat. That ended up sending Andy Ogles to Congress.

Redoing maps after only a handful of elections is politically dumb in my view. I understand why it’s happening, but I also know there’s a reason we have the maps we do now. Redrawing the maps based on the current data is a perilous enterprise for both parties.

When you draw maps once a decade, you know how the previous elections went for the prior maps and have a decade of data to refine your approach. Texas and California are redrawing maps based solely on 2022 and 2024 – and making a lot of assumptions on everything else.

It is true you can theoretically redraw both states and generate five more seats for California Democrats and five more seats for Republicans in Texas. But that is an assumption that voters and specific demographic groups will behave roughly the same in 2026, 28, and 30 as they did in 2022 and 2024.

They may. They also may not.

Remember, Donald Trump will no longer be on the ballot. He will be in the White House. But his literal presence in U.S. politics, sitting atop major elections, is running out. What voters do after this is a huge question. Trump has had a stranglehold on U.S. politics since 2015 – a literal decade. We know the rules with him on the ticket, but we know very little about post-Trump life.

The biggest question of all is the Hispanic vote. If they continue trending towards Republicans, Texas can safely draw a map and expect five more seats. Suppose the Hispanic vote in California drifts just 3-5 points to the right. In that case, Gavin Newsom’s map goes from fewer Republicans to potentially more.

The reverse is also true. If we see Hispanic voters in California and Texas revert to historic norms for Democrats, suddenly the Texas map could be in bigger jeopardy. Some polls have Hispanic voters falling a bit out of love with Trump right now – pointing specifically to the economy. While they also still don’t like Democrats. It’s a toss-up for sure.

Here’s the real problem for Democrats: most of the gerrymandering out there already favors them. They went for broke in Illinois, Maryland, New York, and Massachusetts. There’s not much left on the gerrymandering bone for Democrats to pick at, and California is a gamble for them.

That’s less true of Republicans. The list of states where Republicans could expand beyond Texas is much larger.

The last person who is way over his skis on this topic is Gavin Newsom. The man is clearly positioning himself as the top contender in 2028. But he’s picked a tricky subject to challenge Trump on.

California, under Arnold Schwarzenegger, passed a constitutional amendment to get rid of legislature-drawn maps. They have an “independent” commission draw maps for the state. Under the CA constitution, Newsom has no power to get the legislature to pass new maps. To change this, he’s calling for a special election in November for a constitutional amendment to allow a brief departure from this rule for the 2026, 28, and 2030 elections.

Here’s the interesting part: Californians like the amendment and the independent commission drawing those maps. Polling in California shows voters somewhat opposed to this plan by Newsom. Democrats have countered with national polls, suggesting more agreement with the plan. But national and state polls are two different things.

Additionally, Arnold Schwarzenegger is coming out of political retirement to attack Newsom on this point. He will be campaigning with others in the state against it. Newsom is raising a war chest to fight this election. But there’s no doubt, changing this law is an uphill battle with Republicans and independents opposed to Newsom.

Which brings up another thing: Newsom has fought hard to make himself the face of the anti-Trump fighters. If he loses this gerrymandering special election in November, he will be in deep trouble. It won’t just be rejection of his idea – it will be a rejection of his idea by Californian voters, his state.

There’s a version of events where Newsom nukes his own 2028 presidential bid in 2025. It’s a long way off, and things can change. But Newsom taking a significant loss in his own party this early on would be a jarring experience and severely deflate his political aspirations. If he can win this, he can keep up the momentum versus Trump.

But Newsom’s red line is setting up a very high-stakes moment for 2028. If he genuinely wants to run for president, he may need to win this gerrymandering special election to make it out of the primary. If he loses it, Democrats could sour on him quickly.

As I said at the top, a lot of people are over their skis on this stuff. But the person with the most to lose is Gavin Newsom. His entire political career is now riding on what happens in November.

Quick Hits:

Where you can find me this week

The Redistricting Fight No One Really Wants

Links of the week

X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week

Satire of the week

Thanks for reading!