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Good Friday Morning! Except to those of you attending the 80th Tomatina festival in Spain this year. The Associated Press released photos of the pure tomato chaos. In just an hour, 22,000 people descend on one area and throw 120 tons of overripe tomatoes at each other, creating a massive mess.
Everything is covered in the remaining tomato goo. It looks like the world is covered in old spaghetti sauce, but everyone is having a good time. Personally, I couldn’t imagine sitting in the middle of tomato sludge 3-6 inches deep on the ground. However, they’re celebrating 80 years, with the event marking the year 1945.
There’s no tomato slop here, though. We’re continuing to produce high-quality content at the Conservative Institute, American Almanac, and Capital Digest. We’ve also started a new newsletter to join this crew: Conservative Legal News. I’ll be writing this one, as well. It’ll cover all the happenings in the courts, some true crime stories, and the best legal analysis available.
Like everything else, signing up is free. I appreciate all the positive feedback on the Almanac and Capital Digest. We work hard on putting those together, and I think Conservative Legal News will get the same feedback.
This week, I’ll be discussing the upcoming midterms and what Democrats are missing heading into them – links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- Trump’s firing of the Federal Reserve. As a quick note, for all the reporting on this topic, Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook from the Fed is likely to stand. She’s yet to really push back on any of the mortgage fraud claims the White House is making against her. The facts on that front seem somewhat set. Unquestionably, this case is going to the Supreme Court, but the pathway seems clear. SCOTUS has been seeking to strike down Humphrey’s Executor for a while, and it appears that this may happen, which would undermine Lisa Cook’s arguments. Two points on Biden relating to this story. 1) It’s not unprecedented. The Biden team used the fact that Fed officials trade stocks as the basis for “reforming” the Fed. In truth, Biden stacked the agency in his favor. 2) Biden’s zeal is pushing out Trump officials in the same way Trump is doing now, paved the way for Trump to investigate Lisa Cook for mortgage fraud.
- The American Almanac is growing! Hundreds of thousands of people now read us daily. I want to express my sincere gratitude to those of you who subscribe, share, and help us grow. You can subscribe here for free. Additionally, please check out Capital Digest (finance/economics), Conservative Legal News, and Real Talk Digest. There are more projects in the pipeline. If you don’t see anything in your inbox a day after signing up, check your spam folder.
Where you can find me this week
Please subscribe, rate, and review The Horse Race on YouTube — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter and The American Almanac.
Trump’s Executive Order Protecting The Flag May Be Constitutional – Conservative Institute
Biden Created The D.C. Crime Wave – Conservative Institute
Democratic Calls For Gun Control Ring Hollow – Conservative Institute
Democrats and the Midterm Problem
The midterms are starting to take shape with people lining up for the offices they want to run for in 2026. It’s still a little early to make predictions, but generally speaking, you’d expect Democrats to have a good year in 2026. Americans tend to reject the party in power on some level, and the party in power will rest on its laurels.
Democrats hold a 3.7-point lead on the generic ballot, according to RealClearPolitics. Trump’s approval number is 45.8%, which is actually decent. Only 51% disapprove of him, representing a 5.2-point delta. Those two numbers suggest that Democrats will retake the House with a tight fight in the Senate.
Those numbers will fluctuate significantly between now and next fall. One year from now, I’ll start pivoting into post-Labor Day analysis of the midterm races. In short, things are
Politico is already trying to couch expectations, though. They talked to Doug Sonic, a former advisor to Clinton and D.C. Democrats. He makes the obvious point that long-time readers of my work are already aware of. There’s a deep education divide between the two parties.
In 2024, Democrats carried 14 of the 15 most college-educated states, while Republicans captured 14 of the 15 least college-educated states (Utah and New Mexico, respectively, bucked the trend).
A year out from the midterms and with Trump’s approval rating on the decline, Sosnik told POLITICO Magazine that he expects Democrats to do well. The House is within reach for the party, though the Senate will obviously be tougher to take.
But Democrats would be foolish to think they’ve solved their problems if they do succeed in 2026. College-educated Americans are higher propensity voters — they’re more likely to turn out in a midterm election. When the next presidential election arrives, the makeup of the electorate will once again shift.
“2028 and 2026 are completely different,” he said.
My Friday column covers how Democrats are just flat out missing the boat on the topic of gun control and the awful events in Minnesota this week. In short, you can’t demand gun control when you’ve failed to control crime in major cities. People will protect themselves if you don’t.
There are these bizarre flashpoints where Democrats are out of touch, not just with America, but also with factual reality. Another point is one Israel. I have little doubt the Democratic Party is nothing more than a mouthpiece for Hamas now. The Squad and Progressive have done their damage.
Both Semafor and CNN reported this week on the DNC’s meetings and how those few days led to a lot of infighting, specifically over Israel. The far left of the party is trying to be like Canada and Europe and get Democrats to recognize Palestine as a second state.
What’s bizarre is that this is decades late. The two-state solution in Israel is dead in the Middle East. No one wants it anymore: neither Israel nor the Arab states.
Here’s a fun contradiction. While France, the UK, and Canada have pushed for Palestine to be recognized as a state, the Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, are taking the polar opposite approach.
Arab and Muslim states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have for the first time issued a joint call for Hamas to disarm and relinquish power in the Gaza Strip as part of efforts to end the war in the territory.
“Governance, law enforcement and security across all Palestinian territory must lie solely with the Palestinian Authority, with appropriate international support,” the joint document read, adding that “in the context of ending the war in Gaza, Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority, with international engagement and support, in line with the objective of a sovereign and independent Palestinian State.”
Here’s the dirty secret of this statement: the Palestinian Authority is dead, too. The only governing body in that territory is Hamas. In forcing the remaining remnants of Iran’s Hamas infrastructure to collapse, the Arab states are calling for a collapse of Palestine.
Trump’s shift on this is that an independent Palestinian State can exist, just not in Israel. They can send it to another continent for all he cares.
Yet, Democrats are acting like they can force a two-state solution, like Clinton attempted. But Clinton’s attempt is the last chance for a two-state solution. In short, Democrats are 25 years behind the curve on this issue.
Israel and Saudi Arabia, if Trump can get them to do it, are on the verge of a broad regional agreement that would expand the Abraham Accords. With Iran on life support, Israel is now the undisputed regional hegemon. Democrats are calling for policies for a world that no longer exists.
It’s the same thing on gun control, as I note in my column. That debate ended in 2020. Democrats don’t have to be right on everything to win the House and make inroads in the Senate. However, if they’re going to remain outside the stream of history, it will make winning incredibly difficult. Put another way: touch grass.
Links of the week
We Don’t Need Gun Control, We Need To Classify Gender Dysphoria As A Mental Illness Again – The Federalist
Media coverage of the latest tragedy hits another new low – Matt Taibbi
The Farther East One Goes in Europe, the More ‘West’ One Winds Up – New Lines Magazine
The Gun Control Lie I Once Believed In: Like everything else, it is a way to deflect from failure. – Sasha Stone
A Dark Money Group Is Secretly Funding High-Profile Democratic Influencers – Wired
Norman Podhoretz: The Longest Journey in the World – The Free Press
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Democrats are in deep trouble over party registration.
Satire of the week
Dead-Eyed Travis Kelce Nods At Bow Tie Options For Cat Ring Bearers – Onion
Travis Kelce Finally Acquires Ring Without Help Of Referees – Babylon Bee
I LIVED IT: The Plan That Was Far Away Is Now – Reductress
Taylor Swift Announces 151 Date, 5 Continent Wedding – The Hard Times
John Mellencamp Autobiography Contains Four Chapters About Other Things He Likes to Do With Chili Dogs – The Hard Times
Well, We’ll Always Not Have Half-Life 3 – The Hard Drive
Music Critics Already Calling Taylor Swift’s Eventual Divorce Album The Greatest Of All Time – Waterford Whispers News