If you’d like to read this issue on my website, click here! If you’d like to sign-up, and receive this in your inbox each week, click here! Read past issues here.
Good Friday Morning! And an early Happy Thanksgiving to you and every reader. As a note of housekeeping, there will be no newsletter next week due to the holiday weekend.
I came across a cool YouTube account this week named “Hanaya.” She and her sister are North Korean defectors and are now traveling the world for the first time. Notably, they’re traveling to the United States. They had a video that went viral about “Seeing Americans” for the first time. It’s a fascinating look at America from a true outsider – which fits the theme of this newsletter perfectly.
And also, if you want to be extra thankful this Thanksgiving, listening to them react to our normalcy here will sober you really quickly. Everything we do is novel to them, including not being terrified when someone punches your ticket on a train.
It was a wild week in politics. I’m going to highlight some of the bizarre in the quick hits section. But the primary focus today is breaking down an argument on the right this week: are we moving into a post-Trump world? Links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- The RFK Jr. affair scandal gets even crazier. If you’re a true political junkie, and I mean that in the worst possible sense (because I am), this affair has had everything. It took another turn this week, roping in names I was not expecting. I have a column on this below. Ace wrote about it at AoSHQ in a hilarious fashion. If you know the general beats of the story about Olivia Nuzzi’s affair with RFK Jr., you also have to read her ex-fiancé’s version of events. And you have to read it until the last sentence, because the name he drops at the end floored me. If you’re wondering why this is a story in politics, it’s because this story is ripping apart the political journalistic world – and as a conservative who generally dislikes everyone involved, it’s a deeply funny story.
- Minnesota is funding Somali terrorism. This bombshell report from City Journal is unbelievable. Chris Rufo and team tracked down proof that at least three separate welfare scams were sending billions to Somalia and Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group. One of the scams involved Somalis faking children’s diagnosis of autism and sending the case payouts either to themselves or abroad. It may be the worst welfare fraud report I’ve ever read, and it’s happening on Tim Walz and Ilhan Omar’s watch.
- The Texas redistricting case has the wildest dissent ever. The fight over new redistricting maps in Texas is heading to court, just like in California. Unsurprisingly, a panel decided to strike down the Texas maps. I’m unsurprised, but also think Texas is going to get its way on this (as will CA). However, the dissent from the Texas case is legendary. I’m sharing a direct link here because I’ve literally never read anything like it before. This is a Reagan-appointed judge who is livid and makes no bones about his anger.
- The American Almanac is growing! Hundreds of thousands of people now read us daily. I want to express my sincere gratitude to those of you who subscribe, share, and help us grow. You can subscribe here for free. Additionally, please check out Capital Digest (finance/economics), Conservative Legal News, and Real Talk Digest. There are more projects in the pipeline. If you don’t see anything in your inbox a day after signing up, check your spam folder.
Where you can find me this week
Please subscribe, rate, and review The Horse Race on YouTube — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter and The American Almanac.
The Sports Gambling Experiment Has Failed – Conservative Institute
The Kennedy Affair, Epstein’s Scandal, And The Press That Hid It All – Conservative Institute
The Fall Of ESPN Was A Choice – Conservative Institute
We Are Not In A Post-Trump Moment – Yet
As the fights between Tucker Carlson’s path and the rest of the Republican Party continue, it has become a popular talking point to say we’re approaching the “Post-Trump” moment. That is to say: Trump is becoming a lame duck president, and with that, his coalition is cracking up.
People are obviously pointing to politicians like Marjorie Taylor-Greene as an example, who is now a hit on cable television and liberal outlets. Columns in The Hill, and Jonah Goldberg in The Dispatch, play this point out (Mark Halperin pushes back on this on his show).
In a literal sense, this is, of course, true. We are moving past Trump being on the ballot. But that literal point does not mean we’re in a post-Trump moment.
In 2024, I was watching Republicans consolidating around Trump in preparation for the general election. Everyone was buzzing back and forth between NY/DC and Mar-a-Lago. I told a friend that eventually, Mar-a-Lago was going to become the place, like the Reagan Library, where future Republicans go to “kiss the ring” and get a blessing from Trump or his family.
Part of what confuses me most about the “post-Trump” people is that they seem to believe Donald Trump vanishes after his second term ends in January 2029. Trump is going to stay active in Republican and national politics until he dies. Anyone thinking he’s taking the George W. Bush path out of the presidency has lost their mind.
But the biggest issue with the “post-Trump” narrative is that it effectively ignores what will happen in 2028. Part of why I’ve focused more on Democrats until this week’s newsletter is that I find their quandaries far more interesting. That’s a party in total disarray and at war with itself. I have no idea how they’re going to square those differences, and neither does anyone else.
I do know what the 2028 presidential primaries are going to look like, though. There’s going to be two lanes for candidates to run in: 1) The MAGA/Pro-Trump lane, and 2) Everyone else.
J.D. Vance is going to walk right into that Trump lane with no problem. No other person will be able to eat into that coalition he’s going to have. That’s automatically between 40% and 60% of the GOP caucus, more than enough for a primary win. Also, he won’t get a substantial challenge.
Because the second lane will be both smaller and have fewer fractures, depending on how many other candidates run. Anyone else running in that cycle is aiming for media positions or a place in a Vance administration. Right now, his V.P. pick is likely to be Marco Rubio, though that could change. Trump will bless Vance, and that will lock down the primaries.
This will not be a long process. The only shot, similar to 2024, any Republican has of stopping this is winning in Iowa. If you can’t win that first state, it’s all over. I don’t see J.D. Vance losing that first primary.
The only way this changes is if J.D. Vance does something to thoroughly weaken and discredit his chances during Trump’s second term. We don’t have that yet, so that means we’re getting Vance as Trump’s handpicked successor for 2028.
That’s not Post-Trump in any meaningful view. If Vance wins, it’ll only reinforce that Trump’s policies and coalition are the way forward. If Vance loses, that’s when we could hit a “Post-Trump” moment. Still, every future politician will try to rebuild that Trump coalition and seek Donald Trump’s blessing.
Furthermore, there are more than a few rumors that Donald Trump Jr. wants in the White House. And the most ardent MAGA supporters see Barron Trump as a future successor as well. Are these points true? I don’t know. But I do know this is not the end of Trump, his family, or his coalition.
It’s been 20+ years since fusionists won a national election: 2004, George W. Bush. That Reaganite coalition died with the Great Recession in 2008. And that’s about what it would take to end the Trump coalition – another massive recession. Voters have to see something as finished, and if Trump continues to succeed, they’ll back his movement.
And I say all this as a conservative. I am far more sympathetic to the Reaganite way of thinking. But I’m not stupid, either. I know electoral politics, and right now, Trump holds the upper hand. You can’t just wish your way into a post-Trump moment, especially when his family and supporters will work to preserve whatever his legacy ends up being.
Donald Trump officially entered national politics in 2015, and he’ll leave office in 2028 with nearly 15 total years on the national stage. That’s more impact than anyone since Reagan or FDR. Those kinds of presidents have extremely long coattails, whether anyone wants that or not. Their success begets attempts to mimic what they did.
So, to restate: as everyone heads into a holiday week, we’re not in a post-Trump moment. I don’t believe we’ll have a post-Trump moment until he passes away from this mortal coil. The main is pathologically incapable of shutting up about anything, ever. He’ll continue talking politics, making endorsements, and giving his running commentary until he is physically incapable.
That’s not post-Trump. It’s just a new phase of the current era.
Links of the week
The Left’s 21st Century Project Has Failed: Time to face the facts. – The Liberal Patriot
Miss Palestine’s connection to convicted terrorist leader revealed ahead of Miss Universe pageant – New York Post
How Trump’s Own Appointees Aided Russiagate Plot Against Him – RealClearInvestigations
Barack Obama and the “Bitter Clingers”: Part One of a Virtual Civil War – Sasha Stone
Gavin Newsom Is the Early Democratic Frontrunner for a Reason: The party’s two main factions won’t accept the other side dominating. The “Resistance” will likely emerge as the winner. – The Liberal Patriot
The Bluesky Way of Arguing: And in defense of “debate bros” – Bentham’s Bulldog
Indian Pudding – America’s Forgotten Dessert – Tasting History with Max Miller
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Julie K. Brown on what matters on the Epstein investigation.
Satire of the week
Family Enters Crisis Talks After Learning Restaurant Has 45-Minute Wait – The Onion
Starving African Children Raise Money To Feed Ariana Grande – Babylon Bee
Study Finds Missing Sock Will Only Appear Once Matching Sock Has Been Executed – Reductress
Life Hack: Apparently, You Can Throw Underwear Away if It Gets Too Old – The Hard Times
Americans Now Required to Watch 60 Second Ad for SNAP Benefits – The Hard Drive
Social Services Now Requiring Parents To Disclose Whether Or Not They Tortured ‘Sims’ Characters When They Were Younger – Waterford Whispers News