If you’d like to read this issue on my website, click here! If you’d like to sign-up, and receive this in your inbox each week, click here! Read past issues here.
Good Friday Morning! Especially to those of you still frozen under snow and ice like me. The Nashville area received more than a year’s worth of snow in a day. We are all duly traumatized and ask Canada to take its weather back. As Matt Mitchell calls it, it’s winter in the south, aka the bad times.
This week, I’m going to do a follow-up on the Iowa primaries and what is the next important battle in the primaries. As a hint: it ain’t New Hampshire – links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- I have a column up on the Pakistan vs Iran shooting match that’s developing. My main takeaway is that this could seriously free up Israel to respond to Iran. The rise of Pakistan in this situation forces Iran to divert time and attention away from Israel and the United States. Saudi Arabia could benefit from Pakistan’s actions, too. Whether this develops into anything else is secondary to the reality that Iran’s opponents can use Pakistan as leverage against them.
- Trump’s legal cases are roller coaster of insanity, both with the various claims and how the characters involved behave. Trump’s winning the messaging war in against Fani Willis, who faces a very real threat of being kicked off the Georgia case. She had an “intimate relationship” with Nathan Wade, and appointed him as the lead prosecutor in Trump’s case. That’s causing a significant detour for her in that case. It’s a win for Trump. On the flip side, Trump lawyer Alina Habba, is getting smacked around the court in the E. Jean Carroll case. And I say that because the general opinion of every single lawyer on every side of the case is that she does not know how to lawyer. And I’m talking very basic evidence motions and other things. This is a case Trump should win easily, but he may lose it due to poor lawyering.
Where you can find me this week
Please subscribe, rate, and review my podcast on iTunes, Spotify, or Google Play — the reviews help listeners, and readers like you find me in the algorithms. Make sure to sign up for the Conservative Institute’s daily newsletter.
Biden’s US Is Unprepared For War – Conservative Institute
Iran And Pakistan Hold Key To What Happens Next In Israel – Conservative Institute
The GOP Primaries End As Quickly As They Began: Up Next – Trump’s VP
Last week, I made my predictions on the GOP primaries in Iowa, and we’re essentially where I thought we’d be by now. Here’s the core of what I said:
I think we’ll see something along these lines happen:
-
-
- Trump wins Iowa. The lower tier drops out (Vivek, etc).
- Trump wins New Hampshire. Haley has a decent performance but still loses by a wide margin.
- Trump wins Nevada and South Carolina. (DeSantis drops out).
-
I expect Haley to drop out sometime after that, endorse Trump, and him eventually offer her the Vice Presidential role. I’d call her the best option, but it’s more realistic to say she’s Trump’s only option for VP.
Step one happened. Trump won, Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out to become an official Trump surrogate (instead of his unofficial role as one), and Asa Hutchinson dropped out.
We’re headed towards Step 2, where Trump will win New Hampshire. Team Nikki Haley is already downplaying New Hampshire by saying a “strong second place” is a good goal for her. It’s a hilarious statement for her campaign when she’s tried to make the unconvincing argument that it’s a “two-man race.” She’s right about the number but wrong in including herself.
To wit, a Nikki Haley donor was talking on Fox News, trying to talk her up as the primary challenge to Trump. He then stated the obvious: Nikki Haley was getting a sizable portion of her donations from… Democrats.
I’m not saying this to downplay Nikki Haley or attack her as a closet Democrat. I don’t think any of those things, and I still like her to some degree. But it’s been clear for months that her polling support was coming from moderate, independent, and Democratic voters in the GOP primaries, especially in the open primary system of New Hampshire.
What’s equally valid is that the red-meat conservatives that make up the bulk of the GOP primary aren’t going for Haley. They’ll vote for DeSantis but not Haley. Trump dominating the news cycle with his legal woes allows him to overwhelm the cycle more thoroughly this time than in 2016.
DeSantis ran as good of a campaign as possible, and he lost when Trump’s legal cases started dominating the news. Erick Erickson put it succinctly when he said, “This time last year, DeSantis was twelve points ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Then Alvin Bragg kicked off the Democrats’ operation “Coronation” to make sure Trump became the GOP nominee.“
This question from here is who ends up as Trump’s VP. I predict it’ll be Haley after the South Carolina primary concludes. We’re getting a much earlier quarrel over that.
Politico’s senior political columnist Jonathan Martin (formerly at the NYT) wrote a piece this week about the full-force effort in MAGA-land to derail a possible Nikki Haley VP pick. Martin writes:
Some Republicans close to Trump find it highly unlikely he would choose Haley. Yet [Senator Lindsey Graham] believes the former president is open to joining forces with his most formidable rival.
How open Trump is to such an alliance, however, may be shaped by the next weeks of the race. It’s one thing for Haley to intensify her criticism of Trump between now and next Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. More difficult for the relationship to survive would be an ugly, month-long battle for South Carolina.
“I think he would pick her if he thought it would help him win,” Graham told me. “But the longer it goes and the more scar tissue accumulates the less likely it is.”
Which is why, in one respect, having Ron DeSantis remaining in the race may not be all bad for Haley, at least if she aspires to be on the ticket with Trump. Were the Florida governor to siphon votes from her in New Hampshire and ensure her defeat in even a demographically promising state, it would give her the cover to drop out of the race and avoid Armageddon in South Carolina.
Trump has been told, by his son Don and others, that picking Haley would ensure a significant backlash from his populist base. Yet that hasn’t stopped the former president, as he is wont to do, from quizzing people about her to test their reactions.
And some in Trump’s organization believe, like Graham, that if Trump was convinced Haley could ensure victory, he’d put aside his reservations and ignore the pleas against her.
From my vantage point, Trump is considering her because he knows she’s his best option. There’s a lot of bluster about her views on foreign policy and other issues in the MAGA orbit, but that doesn’t matter. Anyone who thinks these serious policy questions matter to Trump is ignoring the obvious: Haley is ready for TV and has shown she can dismantle a lesser opponent in a debate to make a scene – see the still burning remains of Vivek’s campaign.
Haley needs Trump as well. This is it for her on the political front. She’s all chips on the table on this run. She’s no longer a governor, Ambassador, or connected to politics in any way to boost her profile after this cycle. She needs this run to work, or she’ll become nothing more than a talking head on Fox News. DeSantis can run again in 2028 on his accomplishments between then and now, no worse for the wear.
When the Haley buzz started picking up this week, NBC News dropped a bombshell that Trump was considering Rep. Elise Stefanik as a potential VP slot. This came out after rumors swirled on Twitter and other places that there was already a tacit agreement for Haley to be the VP.
I read the NBC report as Trump walking away from the table on Haley to calm his base and signal to Haley’s camp that he does not need her. It’s a classic Trumpian move: walk away from the table and get the person to approach you. Haley isn’t going to win New Hampshire, and Trump is threatening to walk away altogether. These kinds of stories flip the leverage away from Haley and into Trump’s hands.
Is Haley a lock? No. But the reports of Trump needling people with her name is a classic sign that he’s seriously considering something. If you read any Trump-era memoirs (Kushner, Barr, etc.), they all talk about this very process.
The GOP primaries opened and closed with Iowa; now it’s all about jockeying for who gets the VP slot and how the administration forms. My money is on Haley, and I’ve laid out that logic. I don’t foresee Trump picking any men for the role this time. He’s very TV-minded in his thinking, and Haley checks more of the boxes for that than anyone else.
And if he makes that pick, you’ll see Haley’s detractors in MAGA-land shift their tone overnight. It’ll be an identical reaction to when they went from pro-Vivek to anti-Vivek with one post on Truth Social Trump. It’s not even about loyalty anymore. It’s just about what Trump wants, and whatever he says, they’ll roll with, no question.
Links of the week
Red Cross says it’s not ‘playing any part’ in delivering medicine to hostages in Gaza – The Times of Israel
The Yale Law School Dean Who Presided Over the ‘Trap House’ Scandal Is Now Under Consideration To Be the University’s Next President – The Washington Free Beacon
The Truth About Banned Books: The left claims that progressive books are being censored in public schools. But my research proves the opposite is true. – James Fishback, The FP
‘Swatting’ targets all sides, raising fears – The Hill
Billionaires Wanted to Save the News Industry. They’re Losing a Fortune. – The NYTimes
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
Satire of the week
Excited British Public Tunes In For Live Broadcast Of King Charles’ Prostate Surgery – The Onion
Trump Promises Vivek An Administration Position Running The White House 7-Eleven – Babylon Bee
Why I Gave Up My Newborn Baby for a Stanley Cup – Reductress
Woman Too Embarrassed to Answer Security Question About Favorite Band in High School – The Hard Times
Couple Saving For Weekend Away In Ireland Settle For 2 Months In Bahamas Instead – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!