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Good Friday Morning! Especially if you’re in Iowa. It’s a state where everyone is focused on the GOP Caucuses on Monday. However, before that, a sizable blizzard is sweeping through the state. Blizzard warnings are out, with 6-10 inches of snow forecasted with wind gusts up to 40+ mph. If you’re in the south (like me), this is the same system bringing rain and tornados. The weather is incredible and wild.
I say that to point out a potential impact on the caucuses. Yes, I’m well aware Iowa is used to snow. But experience doesn’t mean you can stop all impacts to planned events. On Election Day, everyone watches areas where it’s raining for impacts on voter turnout. A blizzard is one of those influences to watch.
Speaking of the upcoming elections, I will dive into my predictions for that and the overall GOP primaries – links to follow.
Quick hits:
- ESPN got busted for running a multi-decade-long scam for getting on-air talent fake Emmy awards. According to the NYPost, ESPN would submit fake names to the organization awarding Emmys, and then re-engrave them after a win and give them to their talent: “Stars such as Lee Corso (fake name: “Lee Clark”), Kirk Herbstreit (“Kirk Henry”), Chris Fowler (“Chris Fulton”), Desmond Howard (“Dirk Howard”), Tom Rinaldi (“Tim Richard”) and Samantha Ponder (“Steven Ponder”) were among those to receive the ill-gotten Emmys.” Erin Andrews also gets name dropped in the report, with the fake name “Erik Andrews.” There’s no evidence these individuals knew about it, but ESPN did run the scam to boost the egos of the people involved. ESPN has had to return all the fake rewards and faces a one-year ban from the process. Talk about some awkward conversations.
- The United States launched a series of retaliatory strikes against Iranian proxies in Yemen (Houthis). This group has fired several barrages of missiles and drones at US military targets in the last month. The US and the UK combined for these strikes. It’s good to have these strikes to help try and silence the attacks on US troops. It’s worth filing this away for later, though. Israel is talking about a wider conflict with Iran, which would involve attacking Hezbollah (another Iranian proxy). The Washington Post said the US is “alarmed” by these prospects. However, US intelligence is warning that Hezbollah wants to target the US mainland with terrorist attacks. Hezbollah is doing that thing where it says it doesn’t want a wider conflict while also attacking in various ways that suggest it does want that war. The White House does not want this. But the risks are clearly there. I tend to believe we’ll see Israel launch a full-scale response to Hezbollah sometime between the end of Q1 and the start of Q2.
- In the last several newsletters, I’ve highlighted news pieces focused on the Qatari influences in US culture. Qatar currently hosts Hamas and “negotiates” between Hamas and Israel. One of Qatar’s foundations funds an “Arab Culture Arts” program for pre-k through elementary schools. In this, kids are taught a variety of things, but the item that went viral this week is a map they use to teach kids geography. The map does not include Israel; it just references Palestine. In essence, a Qatari foundation is funding education programs in America that erase Jewish identity. This is not some right-wing conspiracy. The story I linked is from the Free Press, a publication run by many top journalists from places like the New York Times. Most of the writers are center-left. In the same way Congress has investigated how China has influenced the United States, I expect them to start examining Qatar more.
Where you can find me this week
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Biden’s Secretary Of Defense Goes Missing And No One Noticed. How? – Conservative Institute
Biden’s US Is Unprepared For War – Conservative Institute
It’s Trump’s GOP – And We’re Just Living In It
I started this newsletter by mentioning the Iowa Caucuses because that’s the 800 lb gorilla coming up on Monday. We’re finally getting votes. Chris Christie dropped out ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire because he never stood a chance in this race. He’s destroyed his legacy and will likely spend his days on MSNBC as a “green room Republican.”
The only thing Christie did of note was leave a hot mic moment behind, trashing Haley, saying, “She’s gonna get smoked.” And thus ends the political career of Chris Christie (again).
My read on the primaries is the same: everything rides on Iowa. If Trump wins Iowa, the race is over. Winning Iowa will bring over DeSantis voters to Trump and squeeze out any other competition. The Nikki Haley “polling bump” is a mirage, built on the back of independents and Democrats in New Hampshire boosting her profile. There’s a reason New Hampshire is the only state Haley is performing well in.
If Trump loses Iowa, the race opens up with the next inflection point being South Carolina. But I don’t see Trump losing at this rate. He’s above 50% in every state poll I’ve seen and in all the averages. Earlier this year, polling showed Trump with a plurality of support, with a long shot for someone like DeSantis to build a coalition.
The various legal trials of Trump combined with sheer hatred in the press for DeSantis has managed to propel Trump back to the top of every poll. I expect Trump to win Iowa, which will boost him into New Hampshire and sweep through the primaries.
Iowa is a caucus, which means surprises can and do occur. But it helps to have narrow polling between candidates to pull these miracles off. We don’t have narrow polling in any of these states so far. We have Trump by a wide margin. DeSantis still has the best shot of an upset in Iowa because of his campaign there, but Trump holds the prime position.
I think we’ll see something along these lines happen:
- Trump wins Iowa. The lower tier drops out (Vivek, etc).
- Trump wins New Hampshire. Haley has a decent performance but still loses by a wide margin.
- Trump wins Nevada and South Carolina. (DeSantis drops out).
I expect Haley to drop out sometime after that, endorse Trump, and him eventually offer her the Vice Presidential role. I’d call her the best option, but it’s more realistic to say she’s Trump’s only option for VP.
Trump’s a television savant and knows he needs a woman on the ticket to combat Harris on Biden’s ticket. The bridges between Trump and Pence are burned beyond recognition, and Trump has to pick someone who can represent both the first term and defend his legacy. Haley can do all the above, which will boost Trump but harm her political career in the long term.
Why would she do that? She’s realizing she has to come out of 2024 with something. Otherwise, she won’t get anything moving forward. If she wants higher office of any kind, she’ll have to hitch herself to Trump. DeSantis can run again in 2028, largely unfazed by this election. He can say Trump’s legal travails nuked the field against him, and he’ll have a point. Haley cannot do that.
Trump also needs someone like Haley to help staff his future administration. If he chooses one of the yes-men idiots in his circle, that person will chase away an already thin crowd willing to support him on the right. Trump burned many bridges from 2016 to 2020, and he’s made that even worse in the intervening years. Haley can help plaster over some of those difficulties.
That means it’ll be a Trump-Haley ticket vs Biden-Harris. It will be a close race. I’d give Trump the edge in this round because Biden won’t be able to hide behind the “idea of Biden being President,” he has a real record to defend, and it’s terrible. Biden will have the better campaign infrastructure, and the press will support him. Trump will have the legacy of Biden to hammer, and by comparison, Trump’s legacy is positively glowing.
I’ve jokingly pointed out to friends several times that everything people feared with Trump (recession, WWIII, crumbling Middle East, etc) has happened with Biden. But that’s going to be what people think about when they vote. Trump may be awful to them on a personal level, but Biden’s been far worse on a policy level.
Moving on to November, the key to remember is this: the 2016 and 2020 elections were decided by fewer than 75,000-100,000 votes spread among four to six swing states. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan will decide the race.
It will be interesting to see if Biden can hold together several critical demographics. He’s a “consensus” candidate without a true base of support. If he loses parts of that, his hand weakens. Multiple minority groups show signs of weakening for him.
I’ve seen many people predict Biden won’t run again. That’s an impossible thing to prove at this stage. I’m working the assumption that he’s running because Democrats believe they’re doomed if it’s Harris. The odds of Biden being medically incapable of running are roughly equal to those of Trump, whether people on either side of the aisle want to admit that.
There’s another belief that Biden will drop out at the convention, leaving the Presidential run to Harris. And, again, while possible, it’s impossible to prove. Switching out Biden at the convention would irrevocably rupture politics both in America and especially the Democratic Party. I’d pencil in a Trump victory at that stage because I’d expect significant portions of the Democratic base to stay home.
Denying people the right to vote on a Biden replacement via primaries would rip the Democratic coalition apart in ways that they’re not prepared to consider. Democrats have spent four years talking up January 6, 2021, as a dire threat to democracy (which is odd, given the number of funny memes they make about it). To turn around and deny democracy in their own primaries would rip that thread to pieces.
All that to say, I expect a 2020 rematch with Haley sitting in Pence’s spot. Trump has the edge because he hasn’t been running things, and Biden’s record is awful. Iowa and South Carolina are the two critical states coming up, and Trump leads in both for the primaries.
A Presidential election year is upon us. Welcome to 2024.
Links of the week
What Did Qatar Know about the Hamas Attacks, and When Did It Know It? – Mosaic
WATCH: Gunmen Storm TV Studio During Live Broadcast – Mediaite
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema votes against Biden judicial nominee for 1st time – AZCentral
The AP’s Climate Coverage Is Funded by Left-Wing Groups—And It Shows – The Washington Free Beacon
Microsoft overtakes Apple as largest U.S. company on AI boost – Axios
DEI Finds ‘Skull And Bones’ – The Atlantic
Church without God: How secular congregations fill a need for some nonreligious Americans – Study Finds
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
How do you know Alabama has hired a new coach? Look for the smoke…
Satire of the week
White Liberal In New York Quietly Removes ‘All Are Welcome Here’ Sign – Babylon Bee
‘Purity Culture Was Really Destructive,’ Says Local Hussy – Babylon Bee
Tireless Chris Christie Begins Preparation for 2028 Presidential Election Dropout Announcement – The Hard Times
Gamer Damned to Roll Boulder Up Hill for Eternity Claims “It Gets Really Good After the First 100 Hours” – The Hard Drive
Local Woman Vows To Remain Staunch Socialist Until Salary Hits 40% Tax Bracket – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!