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Good Friday Morning! Especially to those of you who enjoy NFL Draft coverage. It’s always a fun night, and shocking things happen. The Atlanta Falcons stepping in to draft a quarterback just a month after signing Kirk Cousins to a massive deal was a shocker. Injury history with Cousins is an issue, I know. But still… that surprised everyone.
This week, I’m laying down my baselines for the 2024 election and how to read polls moving forward. I’ve touched on parts of this, but not the main reason I’ve focused on a specific two-point range — links to follow.
Quick Hits:
- One of the big points that gets missed in the current pro-Hamas protests happening across the country is that Americans are still being held hostage by that terrorist group. We got a big reminder of that this week when Hamas released a staged hostage video of American hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin. He was seriously injured in the October 7 attacks and is shown in the video missing a hand and having marks on his face and body. Additionally, terrorists in Gaza have started attacking the “humanitarian pier” Biden has ordered to be built. These kinds of points get ignored by the “ceasefire now” crowd.
- The U.S. fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, the lowest rate recorded since we started tracking it in the 1930s. The WSJ reports, “The number of births last year was the lowest since 1979, according to provisional data. About 3.59 million children were born in the U.S. in 2023, a 2% drop compared with 3.66 million in 2022.” For reference, the replacement level is 2.1 births per woman.
- Here’s one of the first AI-related crimes I can remember seeing. Baltimore Police arrested a man who used A.I. to impersonate the principal of a school, making people believe the principal made several racist and antisemitic comments. The audio “leaked,” went viral, and the principal temporarily lost his job over the mess and endured a social media deluge. The DOJ has already said it will be cracking down on the use of AI in white-collar crime (price fixing, fraud, or market manipulation). It’s the Wild West for A.I., and everyone is feeling out the rules as we go along.
Where you can find me this week
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Removing A House Speaker Is Dumb – Which Explains Why Some Republicans Want To Do It – Conservative Institute
Send In The Troops To Columbia And Other Places Terrorist-Sympathizers Exist – Conservative Institute
Kidnapped And Forgotten In Biden’s Foreign Policy – Conservative Institute
The 2024 Election Baselines Are Bad For Biden
Each election year, I like to put out how I’m thinking about polls and the electoral process. I’ve hinted at that a few times this year, but I want to lay it out here so there’s a measuring line moving forward.
Long-time readers know I’m a proponent of the polling averages over individual polls. Most of the narratives in Washington DC are driven by individual polls. But in reality, the better measure is tossing them into the averages, and you’ll get something much closer to the truth. At a minimum, averages tell you whether trends are happening across the board.
Because individual state polling is expensive, national polling is usually the better barometer of more significant movements in one direction or another. There’s also a lot more national polling, which gives us more to throw into the averages.
With that, let’s set some baseline. Here are the final polling average finishes in 2016 and 2020 versus the spread in the national popular vote. I’m using RealClearPolitics for all numbers.
- 2016 National Polls:
- Final Polling Average: Clinton 46.8% vs. Trump 43.6% (Clinton +3.2)
- Actual Vote Results: Clinton 48.2% vs. Trump 46.1% (Clinton +2.1)
- Difference: Trump +1.1 gain between polls and votes.
- 2020 National Polls:
- Final Polling Averages: Biden 51.2% vs. Trump 44.0% (Biden +7.2)
- Actual Vote Results: Biden 51.4% vs. Trump 46.9% (Biden +4.5)
- Difference: Trump +2.7 gain between polls and votes.
- 2024 National Polls:
- Current Polling: Trump 44.8% vs. Biden 44.5% (Trump +0.3)
- April 2016: Clinton led Trump by +9.9 points.
- April 2020: Biden led Trump by +5.5 points.
When all things were said and done in 2016 and 2020, the margins were decided by around 100,000 voters divided up across four states (Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania). If you notice, the difference between Biden and Clinton in the four years is about a two-point difference, 2.4 points to be precise.
This brings up a theory Nate Silver made in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 election: the two-point shift.
So here’s another question. What would have happened if just 1 out of every 100 voters shifted from Trump to Clinton? That would have produced a net shift of 2 percentage points in Clinton’s direction. And instead of the map you see above, we’d have wound up with this result in the Electoral College instead …
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida flip back to Clinton, giving her a total of 307 electoral votes. And she’d have won the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points, right where the final national polls had the race and in line with Obama’s margin of victory in 2012.
Silver concluded by observing, “Just remember that the same country that elected Donald J. Trump is the one that elected Barack Hussein Obama four years ago. In a winner-take-all system, 2 percentage points can make all the difference in the world.”
Why is Silver pointing back to Obama’s 2012 win? Because the final vote margin there was Obama +3.9 points. In the closing weeks of that race, Romney pulled that race even in the polls, but the polls were wrong in the direction of Obama.
Clinton lost about two points from the Obama coalition, and Biden was able to reassemble that, partly to get back to a four-point cushion in the national vote totals.
To win, Biden needs to replicate Obama’s 2012 victory. He needs a polling error. Why? Once again, the race is tied. The problem for Biden is that when the race hasn’t been tied, Trump has held strong or outright commanding leads.
That brings me to the first baseline: Donald Trump does not need to lead the polls to defeat Biden. Even if Trump loses the popular vote to Biden by around two points, he still has a path to victory. Right now, the polls have Trump even with Biden. If that holds, Trump is ahead of where he needs to be for victory.
That’s why I’ve hammered the polling point that Trump has led the polls since September. It’s a massive deal. Trump did not lead the polls this way in either 2016 or 2020. He doesn’t need a lead to win, but he has one. Democrats must hope Biden’s voters circle the wagons and carry him home.
Some of that will happen. The question is, where are the people who return home to Biden? If he just regains the people angry with him in places like California and New York, he’s in trouble. Biden has to retain voters in swing states. I have no doubt Biden rebounds with the Democratic base—that’s a given. Does he rebound with anyone else?
Here’s the other problem ringing for Democrats: Trump’s performance matches the generic ballot. For those who don’t know, the generic ballot is a polling question that asks a person: “Who would you rather run things? Democrats or Republicans?” No names are attached. It also lets you measure the performance of one party over another.
In 2016, the generic ballot was tight. Democrats finished with a +0.6-point lead over Republicans, and actual votes had Republicans leading the generic ballot by +1.1 points. Those polls and the final results told you the environment was conducive to Republicans performing better than expected.
In 2020, Democrats had a commanding lead in the generic ballot polls, with a final lead of +6.8 points. Actual votes had them closer to +3.1 points, showing the same underperformance in the polls as Biden.
If you look at 2024, the generic ballot is essentially tied. Democrats have a +0.4-point lead over Republicans. This tie occurred when Democrats were down, like Biden, for most of the past year.
That brings me to the second baseline: the generic ballot favors Republicans, which makes this much more like 2016 than 2020.
Can this change? Of course. Is it likely to change? No. Biden’s presence in the White House gives Trump the interesting position of being Biden’s challenger in the race. And with Biden’s record-low approval numbers, which aren’t budging, Trump benefits from being out of power.
The last point I’ll leave you with is how I think of the ranges in the race. And I get these by looking at the national averages.
- Trump polling lead: 3+ points in national polling averages. Trump’s odds of winning are greater than 90%
- Trump polling lead: 0-2.5 points in polling averages. 65-90% of winning.
- Biden polling lead of 1 point or less. Trump odds of winning 45-60%
- Biden polling lead of 2-3 points. Trump’s odds of winning are 25-45% chance of winning.
- Biden, with a polling lead of 4+ points = 60% and increasing.
Remember, we’re not trying to win a popular vote. We’re trying to get the Electoral College to tip in favor of one candidate or another. The way the states are set up right now, Democrats have to maintain a larger polling lead to guarantee they’re pulling those voters into the fold.
This reality is why I haven’t taken too much stock in the media’s “Biden polling bump” narrative. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average, that “polling bump” is as much about Trump polling worse than anything else. Biden’s numbers have dropped, too. They’re both under 45%.
Biden is well below where he was at this point in 2020, and he’s lagging behind 2016 Clinton. These points matter, even if the media isn’t mentioning them in their breathless coverage. The other factor keeping Democrats up at night is that Trump’s over-performed polling numbers in 2016 and 2020. It’s entirely possible for any Biden surge to get canceled out by a Trump surge at the end in 2024.
In 2020, Biden sometimes led Trump by double digits, and he’s barely even now. The even race is a best-case scenario for Biden.
Nothing is a lock. However, one overriding factor animates this race: Donald Trump has a lead in polling averages. It’s slimmer than earlier this year, but he’s got it. And that’s something he never had in 2016 or 2020. He doesn’t need it to win, and that’s why Democrats remain wary of polls and Biden.
Links of the week
Camping Out at Columbia’s Communist Coachella: Ivy League activists, armed with melatonin gummies, gluten-free bread, and friendship bracelets, stand up against ‘the violent Zionist settler entity.’ – Olivia Reingold, The Free Press
He Endorsed Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Then He Landed a Professorship at Columbia University. Mohamed Abdou said he was ‘with Hamas’ just days before joining Ivy League school – Washington Free Beacon
Jewish Yale student journalist stabbed in the eye with Palestinian flag during protest – NYPost
University of Washington Students Postpone Their Antisemitic Campus Encampments After Learning There Are Too Many White Students Involved – My Northwest, 770 KTTH
Why Are We Talking Only About Speech? – Seth Mandel, Commentary
Why Anti-Israel Protesters Won’t Stop Harassing Jews: The movement’s ideological character invites rage and violence. – Jonathan Chait, NYMag
She Survived a Death Camp. Facing Biden DOJ Charges, She Is Prepared to Die in Prison – The Daily Signal
TikTok will not be sold, Chinese owner tells US – BBC
Kids Are Giving Up on Elite Colleges—and Heading South: ‘Even if I could’ve gotten into Harvard, I wouldn’t have gone.’ – The Free Press
Outrage over bizarre chicken sacrifice in Mexican Senate as politician in hot water – The Daily Star
A hunk of space junk crashed through his roof in Florida. Who should pay to fix it? – NPR
X/Twitter Thread(s) of the week
SNL Predicted The Future When It Comes To Radical Leftists Siding With Terrorist Groups Years Ago.
Satire of the week
Man Stops One Oreo Short Of Successfully Eating Away Problems – Onion
‘Israel Must End Its Illegal Occupation!’ Cry People Staging Illegal Occupation – Babylon Bee
Abraham Pretty Sure This Feud Between Ishmael And Isaac Will Blow Over Soon – Babylon Bee
How to Listen to Your Body Even Though It Has No Idea What It’s Talking About – Reductress
Rolling Stones Manager Admits to “Weekend at Bernie’s”-ing Keith Richards for Last 35 Years – The Hard Times
Here’s Why the Thing You Like Sucks According to Me, Someone Who Learned About It on Twitter Last Week – The Hard Drive
Music Critic Under Police Protection After Giving Negative 9.9/10 Review To New Taylor Swift Album – Waterford Whispers News
Thanks for reading!